Friday, July 19, 2013

At one point the regionals took a dive, surely the fkli must dive too right? Trigger happy trading against the 5 min trend had consequences.

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Thursday, July 04, 2013

5 min

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Wednesday, July 03, 2013

Don't procrastinate

Completing the picture. In short, instead of lamenting on why the market does what it does, one would do well just to act....

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Friday, June 07, 2013

Beware the Black Swan

"Nobody is bigger than the market."

"You are only as good as your last trade"

"90% of all futures will lose their money"

We need to be realistic, this is a zero sum game every RM won there is an RM lost.

There was a new trader who came into the futures market and was the "top volume" trader instantly on FKLI futures. The exchange was so proud of this individual for 11 months. Well on 6 May 2013, this trader took one one big gamble too many and lost 300k. He overleveraged and thus the account resulted in overloss which e could nt pay up. Nick Leeson eat your heart out. So, being te "top trader" in volume for 11 months probably did not garner any profits, as he cannot even fork out 300k to reactivate his trading activities as a Local. Moral: Trade for Profits, not for Volume and do't GAMBLE.

On the other side of the coin, one retail customer on that famous day made 800K. For every loser there is a winner. You don't have to churn volume as a Local to make $.

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Tuesday, June 04, 2013

"The smart money comes into the market in the afternoon" We'll see if this is the case...

"Analyse your markets and lay out your strategy and tactical moves in advance, and in privacy. Don't ask anyone's advice, and that includes' brokerage advisories, tips and even well-intentioned market gossip. And, don't offer your advice to anyone else. You shouldn't care if Shearson is buying ABC or if Salomon is selling XYZ. You should stick to your objective analysis and market projection based on whichever method or technique has proven viable for you; and you should revise that strategy only on the basis of pragmatic and objective technical evidence. Such evidence could be a signal from your chart analysis, your computer system or from the margin department, which reminds you that your position has moved adversely and that your account has become undermargined."
Stanley Kroll

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Thursday, March 01, 2012

Now they are writing on how the Asian stocks moved into bull market yesterday. Stanley Kroll used to say, trade with the trend... when the 9 Price>am>18ma>50ma, then the trend is bullish...
UPDATE: This is the schzo nature of human nature. A day after "Asian stocks move into bull market...", they drop as concerns arise over no more China easing...

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Sunday, February 19, 2012

"Traders come to the markets with great expectations, but few make
profits and most wash out. The industry hides good statistics from
the public, while promoting its Big Lie that money lost bv losers goes
to winners. In fact, vvinners collect only a fraction ofthe monev lost by
losers. The bulk of losses goes to the trading industry as the cost of
doing business—commissions, slippage, and expenses—bv both win-
ners and losers. A successful trader must hop over several high hur-
dles—and keep hoppin"

Alexander Elder, "Come into My Trading Room" page 48.
Basically if the trading costs of commissions, slippage and expenses are too much the hurdles to a trader's success gets bigger. ..

BTW Sally Pearson is the hot favourite for the Olympic gold in the 100m hurdles for women.

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Tuesday, February 14, 2012

No sooner than Greece Parliament passes the austerity, one call from the manipulators sees Moody's getting out the ratings machine gun downgrade for 6 Eurozone countries. Someone wants the markets down...

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When prices go up, there is always a reason (cpo at 3 week high after Greece passes bill), AFTER the fact. Hence listen to Ed Sykota in his Whipsaw song, "What do you do with a hot news flash? You stash that flash in the trash!"
FACT: What is the attrition rate for Local Participants? It is about 50%. Over a ong period of time there are now 128 registered LP, only 66 are trading now.

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The Mystery of the Stock Market Flash Crash - YouTube






Few comments:
1 When the algos run amok one should get a good idea how the market might react
2 Fear and greed, don't get overly excited and hysterical like the commentators in the videos.
3 Algos are made by humans, and like humans they are prone to insanity=doing something that you know is wrong but still doing it anyway...

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The pigs are coming...

The saying goes:
"Bulls get fed, Bears get fed, but the pigs get slaughtered"

High frequency trading is coming, the Bursa says. We better focus and be there to slaughter the HFT pigs, when their emotionless computers run amok like the flash crash of May 6 2010.

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Monday, February 13, 2012

Advice from a 30 year market veteran

Stanley Kroll, in pp52-53 of his book, Dragons and Bulls.

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Friday, February 03, 2012

It was a roller coaster ride this week...

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Wednesday, February 01, 2012

The Whipsaw Song


Time tested principles from a Market Wizard, Ed Sykota.(revisited)

Ride your Winners
Cut your Losses
Manage your Risk
Use Stops
Stick to the System
File the News (in the trash eg Greece)

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Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Before you turn into a super bear...

a


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Monday, January 30, 2012

20120130 After a long period of sideways activity.... the break of the uptrendline was the signal to be bearish for FKLI futures, on the 30 min chart...

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Saturday, January 21, 2012

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Thursday, January 19, 2012

S&P500 closes above 1300

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Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Dialogue sesion

Well, the night was one with nice food, and a dialogue sessions between Local Participants and Bursa Derivatives. A constructive and frank discussion where CEO Mr Chong Kim Seng outlined bursa's plan to grow the local pupulation to 1,000 LPs. If that is achievable, then all augers well for liquidity in the market. Oh, and thanks for Bursa to put on the CNY dinner for the locals...

Actually, interested potential locals might want to try out being a local participant on BMD by taking this 'Chance of a Lifetime'.

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"There is the plain fool who does the wrong thing at all times anywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool who thinks he must trade all the time."J Livermore Manchester City FCl Crude Palm Oil

fcpo.blogspot.com


From Dragons and Bulls by Stanley Kroll
Introduction and Foreword
The Importance of an Investment Strategy
5 The Art of War, by Sun Tau (circa 506 BC) and The Art of Trading Success (circa AD 1994)
That's the way you want to bet
Long-term v Short term trading
Technicals v Fundamentals
Perception v Reality
Part 1: Winners and Losers
Part 2: Winners and Losers
Sun Tzu: The Art of War
Those who tell don't know, those who know don't tell
Why there is no such thing as a "bad market"
The Secret to Trading Success
The Experts, do they know better?
Risk control and money management
Larry Hite: The Billion Dollar fund Manager
Systems Trading:Kroll's Suggested Method
Buy the Strength Sell the Weakness
Good advice
The 'good bets' business by Larry Hite
Don't lose your shirt
Ed Sykota's secret trend trading system