Wednesday, July 29, 2009

20090729 Todays price action on FKLI futures, China stocks tumbling 7% during the lunch session provided the impetus for the sell down in futures.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

20090728 Genting surges again this week. So the buy calls way back in March by UBS and Hwang DBS were spot on.

20090728 1607. The bull flag breakout pans out nicely.

20090728 1046. FKLI futures on a bull flag formation on 15 min chart.

Monday, July 27, 2009

20090727 1157. So, Bursamalaysia will implement the reduced tick size for stock trading. This will have an impact on the FBM KLCI.

Sunday, July 26, 2009

20090726 FTSE KLCI, how did it do, since the index adopted the 30 stock free float adjusted methodology on July 6 2009. Self evident from the chart that it is definitely thumbs up at this stage.

Saturday, July 25, 2009

20090725 Salvatore Deli of Malaysia Finance Blog likes MPHB for its 'meat value for potential vultures'. The price has surged last Friday. Looking at the chart how would one play it from a trading point of view? Well, if one were to commit a certain amount in this trade, you could chase the price and buy 1/2 position on break of the highs, then enter the 2nd 1/2 on retracement to the 8 ma on the 60 min charts. Stop loss? 1.40 may be good. Just an idea.(remember this is only for hypothetical purposes only)

20090726 Oh, I just want to add that this type of trade in a stock is 'from a tip'..... If everyone is in a trade it might go for a while, but the insiders have already got on the train 5 stations before you do..... Let's see how this pans out. As Salvatore says, the fundamentals are compelling for a corporate raider to come in and take a strategic stake in the company. If so, a better strategy is to keep the stock on the radar screen, in case there is a sharp market correction to enter. This type of 'value investing' play is superior to the kicks one gets from taking a gamble on a stock.

Friday, July 24, 2009

20090724 1800. Two charts to note today: Following on from yesterday's squeeze in FCPO(15 min), there was a significant break out of the range downwards then a rally upwards in the afternoon session, a prime example of the spring uncoiling. Second chart is the daily FTSE KLCI(daioy), momentum still looks to be intact, no sign of reversal yet...

Bloomberg reports on how the S&P500 has reached its 50% retracement of the falls last year to the lows. The KLCI similarly faces the 50% wall at around 1168-1173 region....

A bit of Deja Vu

The market has roared forward this year and come back with a vengeance. People tell me that 'most of the retailers' are not participating in this rally. How does one invest or trade successfully in this market? Not by contra playing (high risk to your wallet) nor insider trading (high risk to your physical and mental well being) nor buying stock due to tip, but remember the 10 (well, 10-13 year cycle., take a longer term approach. Definitely don't listen to doomsdayers who last oct/nov were talking of meltdown and the end of the financial markets.

Thursday, July 23, 2009

It turns out to be an anti climax...

20090723 1727. CPO futures sideways crawl, can it break out soon?

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

20090722 1223. FKLI futures 5 min chart. Sometimes trading can be simple.

20090722 1111. CPO futures today suppressing to downside so far.

20090722 1015. FKLI futures 15 min, shoul be long off the bottom band support.

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

20090721 1548. FKLI futures 2 min chart. We drew the middle line during the lunch session break.

20090721 1528. A nice move down in this correction in the FKLI futures, for those who shorted.

20090721 Astro and its sister company Measat, which announced some 'restructuring' that would be good for shareholders, is a prime example of caveat emptor, if you think you have insider news and it can make you rich, be vary.

20090721 0943. This one was a better short than yesterday morning's.

Monday, July 20, 2009

20090720 1221. FKLi futures daily should be the anchor chart... when the momentum indicators are aligned upwards, we should have ignored short setups that will get one in trouble like this morning.

20090720 0956. So much for that, this one was a stop out.

20090720 0918. FKLI fuutres 15 min chart, hits the upper bollinger band, retracement indicated....

Saturday, July 18, 2009

20090717 FKLI futures weekly, daily and 60 min chrts, in alignment last week.

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

20090715 Meanwhile, the 'Amazing race' between Public Bank and Commerz continues.... Genting has stalled, but forms a wedge pattern, may be due to the sharing of weightage in the new FTSE KLCI with Genting Malaysia.(formerly Resorts World)

20090715 1715. FKLI futures breaks out of the 20 period upper bollinger band today. If one was aware of the technical condition where the 50 day ema is now crossed up above the 200 ema for a while now, then there would be a state of mental preparedness for this move.

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

20090714 1613. FKLI futures 30 min chart.... upside breakout. After the false downside break yesterday, can one believe in its sustainability?

Monday, July 13, 2009

20090713 1245. FKLI futures 30 min chart.

20090713 1054. Tried and tested 2 min chart of the FKLI futures.(FTSE KLCI fuutres) Shows the way this morning.

Thursday, July 09, 2009

20090709 1131. Continuation from the 2 min FKLi futures chart from yesterday.

Wednesday, July 08, 2009

The Cabinet today, in their wisest of wise men wisdom ways, has decided thet BM (and vernacular languages) will be used in the teaching of English and Maths going forward.

The reasons cited are:

"“Only 19.2% of secondary teachers and 9.96% of primary teachers were sufficiently proficient in English,” he said, explaining the Government’s decision to revert to the old system."

Read this blog post on the Malaysian Finance Blog for why English MUST be the medium to teach English and Maths in schools. Touche, Salvatore, I agree with you wholeheartedly.

20090708 1132. Trend channel on the 2 min FKLI futures chart today.

20090708 0948. FKLI futures (30 minute chart) gaps down and continues lower, following on from the weak momentum from yesterday afternoon.

Tuesday, July 07, 2009

20090707 1705. Near the closing, FKLI futures 2 min chart sees prices hold today's channel well.

20090707 1114. 2 min FKLI futures chart for the morning...

Monday, July 06, 2009

20090706 1712. FKLI futures breaks the channel and looks like closing lower.

20090706 1214. 2 min fkli futures chart channel.

Saturday, July 04, 2009

Portfolio rebalancing prior to FTSE KLCI




The half hourly charts of the 3 indices FBM100, FBM70 and FBM30 clearly shows the forces at work, in the past few days of trade in the run up to the adoption of the FBM KLCI. The 30 stock index was bought, 70 stock index sold....

Noting down the important reference levels
FB30ETF: 6.95
for future reference.

Friday, July 03, 2009

Last day of trade for KLCI, closes 1072.69, last minute they just HAD to fix the stocks down to mark the index down to 1072.69. From next week we welcome the FTSE KLCI, with 15 sec updates for the index values. It seems the plunge is caused by some components that market speculated would make it into the FBM KLCI 30 stocks did not make it. (see "KLCI bows out lower")

Read this article for an introduction to the FBM KLCI. How will the new FBM KLCI move? Well, it seems backtesting has seen a 98% correlation to the old KLCI.(see RHB article) So it will move just as the old index did, but with an increased emphasis on the top 5 stocks: Commerz, Public Bank, Sime Darby, Tenaga and Maybank.

Go here to see which are the winners and losers in terms of stocks in the FBM KLCI.

20090703 1129. FKLI futures 30 min down filled, with 2 buy stop runs today. It seems the index is 'resilient', but prices are just maintaining, as S deli of Malaysian Finance blog says, the "market looks tired and due for breather". Incidently today is the last day the KLCI in its present form will trade....

Wednesday, July 01, 2009

20090701 1715. Gap closing completed by the end of the day, and the market gapped down in the afternoon session to create another gap to fill!

"There is the plain fool who does the wrong thing at all times anywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool who thinks he must trade all the time."J Livermore Manchester City FCl Crude Palm Oil

From Dragons and Bulls by Stanley Kroll
Introduction and Foreword
The Importance of an Investment Strategy
5 The Art of War, by Sun Tau (circa 506 BC) and The Art of Trading Success (circa AD 1994)
That's the way you want to bet
Long-term v Short term trading
Technicals v Fundamentals
Perception v Reality
Part 1: Winners and Losers
Part 2: Winners and Losers
Sun Tzu: The Art of War
Those who tell don't know, those who know don't tell
Why there is no such thing as a "bad market"
The Secret to Trading Success
The Experts, do they know better?
Risk control and money management
Larry Hite: The Billion Dollar fund Manager
Systems Trading:Kroll's Suggested Method
Buy the Strength Sell the Weakness
Good advice
The 'good bets' business by Larry Hite
Don't lose your shirt
Ed Sykota's secret trend trading system