Friday, November 28, 2008

20081128 1715. In the end FKLI dec was pushed to a high of 876, but fell back towards the close.

20081128 1436. Downtrend lost momentum and FKLI reversed off inverted H&S formation on 5 min.

20081128 0936. Expiration day for spot nov FKLI. 5 min chart may provide direction for the dec FKLI contract, which currently seems to be down. Sometimes we guess the direction, but on expiration it can go any which way...

Thursday, November 27, 2008

20081127 0956. FKLI Dec contract maintains the price at the highs of yesterday.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

20081126 1715. FKLI Dec 08 contract closes at 867 on last minute auction push up. Bullish? or is it a false dawn. With this type of price action, prices are now above the 1 and 3 day trend.

An excerpt from the news:

"KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Stock exchange operator Bursa Malaysia Bhd. (1818.KU) is mulling introducing the country''s first currency derivatives to further widen investment and hedging tools, business daily Malaysian Reserve reported Wednesday"

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

20081125 1629. The 5 min trend for FKLI futures this afternoon, was downtrend....

Monday, November 24, 2008

20081124 1158. DJIA is up over 250 points. It seems Citigroup is under bailout by the US government. I am glad that they will not go bankrupt, because if they did, the whole world financial system will go to zero. It is time to start the bottoming process for stocks. A very experienced trader/investor friend of mine, is calling the bottom to be there or here abouts.

Sunday, November 23, 2008

20081123 This article in the Wall St Journal asks people to "Ignore the stock market until February". Are they right or wrong, or is it another piece of sensationalism the big dogs put out through the media so they can accumulate stocks. Time will tell... Incidently Obama has outlined his economic plan to "create 2.5 m jobs by 2011.." The message the media is trying to convey is: "This is the end of the world, you should all throw in the towel and sell everything..."

Saturday, November 22, 2008

20081121 Well, Obama has picked his choice of Tim Geithner, the President of the NY Fed Bank as his Treasury secretary designate. And the market likes it with a last hour rally in the Dow. No wonder the Ah Seng (HSI) rallied in the asian time zone. There were 'insiders' in the market.

Friday, November 21, 2008

20081121 FKLI futures closes 869, near the highs. Looks like a reversal candle on the daily chart to me.

20081121 1230. Move continues into lunch session break.

20081121 1216. FKLI futures 5 min chart. Nice rally off an inverted head and shoulders pattern.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

20081120 1123. FKLI futures gaps lower and the downtrend continues.

20081120 0821. Whoa! Our thoughts last night were dead wrong. DJIA crashed over 5% and Asian markets like Nikkei 225, KOSPI and Australia ASX 200 are down about 4% this morning. Goes to show that anything can happen in these crazy times.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

20081119 2247. Big spike in euro and gbp vs the US Dollar in the past hour. Well, risk aversion has lost out again and no crash for the Dow Jones tonight.(hopefully) The US Dollar if it tanked into US stock market openings could well caused the Dow to crash through the capitulation lows. Let's see what happens tomorrow when we wake up in the Asian time zone.

20081119 1715. FKLI futures closes at 868, the day low.

20081119 1638. Trend was down, but spikes up and down and very deep market depth, created tougher conditions for traders. In addition, the markets are waiting with baited breath, to see whether the Dow Jones Industrial average will breach the capitulation bottom made a few weeks ago. It seems currently, that it is a matter of time before it breaks and new lows made, rendering the 'bottom' view wrong....

Friday, November 14, 2008

20081114 2258. Chart of YM (mini Dow) futures on the left 2 min, right hand chart is the eurjpy cross rate 5 min. Eurjpy is a measure of risk aversion, as the jpy weakened, YM futures follows upwards. This is another example of how markets are correlated to some degree, according to the theme of the trading day. FKLI futures on certain days are correlated to concerted regional markets elloffs/rallies.

20081114 0908. FKLI futures gap up above the 1 and 3 day trend. Seems to be bullish if can hold these levels, which now become support. MACD is looking bullish too, but it gave early indications yesterday afternoon.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

20081113 1646. Pigtrader asked a question on the blue and purple moving average values. (see below) The above 1 min chart of FKLI futures with 15 and 60 ema, shows the 15 min and 1 hour trend. A different perspective on the market.

emacro: However if there is no 'trend' ema's or any trend indicator will fail. Bear this min mind.
13 Nov 08, 16:45
emacro: If you look at 1 min charts, you can put ema 15 and 60, providing 15 min and 60 min trends for that short timeframe. In this way one might avoid being on the wrong side of the 'trend'.
13 Nov 08, 16:43
emacro: EMA blue=81 Purple=27. 1 day=27 15 min candles and 3 days=81 15 min candles.
13 Nov 08, 15:44
PigTrader: may I know what MA for the purple line and blu line ?"

20081113 0912. Downtrend view proved the right one, although was under some squeeze pressure which took FKLI futures prices to 895.5.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

20081112 1058. With a view of downwards movement, selling into strength at retracement or pivot levels on FKLI futures turns out well.

20081112 0851. FKLI futures 3 day trend looks to be down.

Monday, November 10, 2008

20081111 1715. FKLI futures closed at 910, the day high. Looking for longs today proved rewarding, based on the 1 and 3 day trend levels.

20081111 1203. FKLI futures uptrend retracement finds support at 891 area.

20081110 0953. 15 min trend seems to still be up, based on the 1 and 3 day trend.

Saturday, November 08, 2008

20081107 DJIA 4 hr chart. Seems that the US stock markets will settle into a period of range trading, albeit a big range.

Friday, November 07, 2008

20081107 1108 FKLI gaps down to open at 863.5. That was the ow for the day, as the rally takes it to 879.5 high so far. If one takes the view of a retrace back up to the previous low support point of 875, traders would do well not to short this morning.

Thursday, November 06, 2008

20081106 0932. FKLI futures 15 min chart gaps below the 3 and 1 day trends. Low of 875 is pivotal point for the uptrend to be intact.

emacro: few more minutes to cash market closing, futures trades at 908.
5 Nov 08, 11:39
emacro: High of 927 now trades 919.5, coming off o/b levels the FKLI futures.
5 Nov 08, 10:37
emacro: FKLI is at 919.5/20 currently., after hitting a hith of 923.5. Is the market overbought?

Poignant words from the cbox chat.

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

20081104 In October, we called the bottom in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as shown by the 4 hour chart. This is the update to that post. As you can see, the rally has lifted the Dow off that bottom....

20081104 1715. FKLI futures 15 min uptrend, with the 1 (cyan) and 3 (blue) day trend, being the 27 and 81 ema respectively. Stay on the right side and one should be ok (in a trending market). If there is no trend, then too bad lor.

Tomorrow is going to be exciting day in the markets.(never thought I can call trading exciting) The United States Presidential election day results will trickle in morning in the Asian time zone. I can remember in 2000, the FKLI gyrated and bought up or sold off in reaction to Reuters headlines, which my partner at the time read off the Reuters monitor. If one is adventurous, the betting agencies can take your bet on all or any outcome you choose.(see image of Ladbrokes election site)!!

Monday, November 03, 2008

20081103 Just two examples of how wrong the 90% of the crowd can be. Last week on Tuesday the idiots pummbled the stocks down on Bursamalaysia, following the 'end of the world' theme echoing around the world. In investing/trading, "When it looks like the end of the world, it ISN'T". But hey we need traders like these to create opportunities for the astute.(30 min charts of IOICORP and MAYBANK)

20081103 1245. FKLI Nov futures close near the highs of the morning. The past weeks have been about selling down to beyond fundamental values (overshoot). It could be that we are in for the adjustment back up in the days ahead. We'll see what happens. As usual the market will tell us the story.

20081103 1024. FKLI futures 15 min chart, with longer moving averages signifying the 1 and 3 day trend. Pointing up.

Saturday, November 01, 2008

20081101 Last Monday, somebody I knew called me up and said: "The market is finished, it is going to 500, and you will be able to buy back Maybank at RM3.00. IOICORP is in deep shit and is gone."

Well Monday IOICORP and Maybank hit lows of RM2.06 and RM3.74 respectively. On Friday's close the prices were RM2.77 and RM5.35 respectively. Whenever there are extreme views pervading the markets, you know something is going to snap back either bullish or bearish.

Another acquaintance of mine went to buy IOICORP and today told me: "This is the most money I have made on a stock, still within contra period!" He has not sold out yet and asks my opinion on the stock. Well from the weekly chart we can see a previous low around RM3.70. That is now the resistance level, and I have a sneaking suspicion it will go up there to test that level.

Read this write up in Business Times online. Has some very good advice for those who have the view that this is the once in 10 year opportunity to get invested.

20081101 Over the past week, 3 month LIBOR rates (3.47%) have eased off, compared to the frozen credit market conditions of two weeks ago.(4.32%) From our view then, L(3.47%IBOR rates held the key to any equities market bounce, and it seems that this is indeed evident from the strong performance for equities this week.

"There is the plain fool who does the wrong thing at all times anywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool who thinks he must trade all the time."J Livermore Manchester City FCl Crude Palm Oil


From Dragons and Bulls by Stanley Kroll
Intro and Foreword
The Importance of an Investment Strategy
5 The Art of War, by Sun Tau (circa 506 BC) and The Art of Trading Success (circa AD 1994)
That's the way you want to bet/a>
Long-term v Short term trading
Technicals v Fundamentals
Perception v Reality
Part 1: Winners and Losers
Part 2: Winners and Losers
Sun Tzu: The Art of War
Those who tell don't know, those who know don't tell
Why there is no such thing as a "bad market"
The Secret to Trading Success
The Experts, do they know better?
Risk control and money management
Good advice
The 'good bets' business by Larry Hite
Don't lose your shirt
Ed Sykota's secret trend trading system