Wednesday, September 30, 2009



20090930 1245 Well, FKLI futures did not get above the upper median line. The glaring divergence on the daily chart points to a deeper correction ahead... but if there is break of risistance above the median lines we will still consider long for small scalps.


20090930 0921 Settlement day, a break above the median channel and we might consider going long FKLI futures...

Tuesday, September 29, 2009


20090929 1715 FKLi futures closes at 1206.5, the gap up this morning now looked like a good shorting opportunity on the 2 min chart...


20090929 1132 Shanghai Composite Index 60 min chart is on downtrend currently... supports cause for FKLI futures maybe to follow suit?


20090929 0932 FKLI futures 2 min chart is still within the down channel.... only just. Might venture my gess that more downside seen, tomorrow the sep contract expires though.

Monday, September 28, 2009


20090928 1715 FKLI futures continues the downward move, closing at 1205, the low of the day.

20090928 1245 FKLI futures 2 min chart.... on downtrend.

Friday, September 25, 2009


20090925 1715 FKLI futures 2 min chart for today. Doesn't seem to be a bearish pattern, at least on a 1 daily candle pattern basis seems bullish.

Thursday, September 24, 2009


20090924 1708 Had small move down to the low of 1216, now trades 1218 for FKLI futures.... nothing to shout about in this lethargic market.

I read with interest the article Bursa-CME tie up positive but effect not quantifiable for now. So it involves FCPO only. My question is if Bursa is going to pay a fee for Globex use, why not have tie up in index futures as well. Oh and by the way, let cme local and bursa locals have reciprocal trading rights??

Oh and the article is talking about Mayban Investment Bank's research. A bit ironic seeing Mayban Inv Bank has no futures broking arm, if you remember they gave up on that business many years ago...... How can they call themselves an Investment Bank without futures broking arm?


20090924 0949 FKLI futures 2 min chart.... possible downtrend?

Wednesday, September 23, 2009


20090923 1714 FKLI futures 2 min chart, break of the trend channel provided the path lower in the afternoon.

Sunday, September 20, 2009

Selamat Hari Raya Aidilfitri


To all the Muslim readers and friends, Selamat Hari Raya!!

Meanwhile read the news on Bursamalaysia's share price after CME tie up announcement.

In addtion, just have to post the daily chart of Genting Bhd, a prime example of the adage 'previous resistance becomes support'. Been very good for the technical traders recently.

Friday, September 18, 2009

What is driving the equities bull market?



The short answer to the above question is the USD carry trade. Because of the zero or near zero interest rate stance by the Fed, the US dollar has now become the funding currency for the carry trade, where traders borrow usd and buy currencies or assets that yield higher than the cost to repay the borrowed US dollar interest rate.

If you look at the two charts (5 min) of the euro futures and emini S&P 500 futures, you see a tick for tick correlation, when the US stock market is open. In this case the USD strengtherned, so equities fall, as some carry trades are unwound.

So when will the bull market end? No one knows, but when you see the USD gaining strength, equities will fall....


20090918 1706 FKLI futures in dead market trade, nothing to shout about today. Action in SIMSCI futures in the last 10 minutes....


Gold futures retreats in the past 1/2 day

From thestar.com.my, "Malaysians invested uS14 bn abroad last year"

Thursday, September 17, 2009


20090917 1647 FKLI futures breaks down off the median line channel. The star online today reported that CME is acquiring 25% stake in Bursamalaysia Derivatives. So is that why the fcpo volume past few days had been churning heavily.... to impress CME to take up the stake?


20090917 1535 Gold futues reaches a high of 1025.8.


20090917 0950 1218 is the next decision point on the 2 min FKLI futures chart.

20090917 0950 FKLI futures 2 min chart 1218 is the next decision point to buy or sell.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009


20090916 2048 Gold futures hit above 1022, albeit briefly.(30 min chart from barchart.com)


20090916 1715 FKLI futures 2 min chart. It seems the upper median line was the price to take profits on longs or scalp some shorts, with the aid of hindsight. Today the Bloomberg TV is mentioning that one year ago, AIG was taken over by the Federal govt, and yesterday it was the one year anniversary of the Lehman collapse. I think we should forget about the past and MOVE forward....
1756 FCPO futures volume for Dec 09 contract now stands at 13409, while FKLI today traded 4381. Palm oil is attracting the players, while FKLI is reduced to a 'dog following the tail(FBM KLCI cash index)'


20090916 1416 Gold futures hits high of 1016.8, now trades 1015.8, looks like the breakout is in play.(15 min chart from futuresource.com)


20090916 1139 30 min of the Oct 09 Gold futures chart. Looks to be on a breakout and might rise to 1100 in the days ahead.


20090916 1049 Updated 2 min FKLI chart. Today the roadmap comes in useful.


20090916 0859 Last one did not work out well. But today we can map the median lines on an uptrend for the FKLI futures 2 min chart.

Monday, September 14, 2009


20090914 1138 Meanwhile, the CIMB continues it's meteoric rise.(snapshot taken at 1111 am.


20090914 1107 FKLI futures 2 min chart, looking to get back down to 1201, the middle median line of the sideways market.

Saturday, September 12, 2009


20090911 CIMB, closes at the highs of 10.94.

Friday, September 11, 2009


20090911 1112 LIkewise AMMB holdings seems to have a buy program, similar to cimb.


20090911 0945 FKLI futures 2 min chart. Traders who stepped in to buy the previous breakout level of 1206 yesterday can see some daylight today.

Some news items for today:
Ex Morgan Stanley banker found guilty of insider trading
China to stay the course on stimulus: Wen
US starts to unwind state bank support


20090911 0943 CIMB (Commerz) 5 min, today afforded the day trade to buy at 1.68.

Thursday, September 10, 2009


20090910 1616 FKLI futures retraces to the breakout point....


20090910 0920 FKLI futures 2 min chart broke up off the sideways consolidation. Most probable outcome, might try longs on retracement to near the breakout point...

Wednesday, September 09, 2009


20090909 Genting Bhd, (one of our stock picks early this year) has shown a reversal signal, meaning it is time to lock in profits...


20090909 1619. A log of hoo hah, huffing and puffing, but the FKLI futures market is range bound, not going anywhere fast...


20090909 1056. FKLI futures 2 min chart. Moves into a new trading range...

Tuesday, September 08, 2009



20090908 1715. FKLI futures 30 min chart. The strength in the Hang Seng Futures propels the FKLI futures to close on the high of the day. Seems the bull is back among retailers, I heard they are discussing stocks at the kpoi shops and pasar malam....


20090908 1148. HSI futures 5 min chart. The Standard newspaper reports this morning that 'correction expected in Hang Seng Index after the 1.5% rise yesterday....'. Is this a chart of a correction?


20090908 1110. Well, just had to take the bigger snapsot of the nice move up in FKLI futures, respecting the median line channel. At this point, is the FKLI futures going to break down and reverse trend?

Monday, September 07, 2009


20090907 2152. AUDJPY pair continues to move up today, following on from the weekend pick.


20090907 1245. There have been cries from the traders on the FKLI futures that the market is untradable, no trends due to the change in the bid/ask of the component stocks. But hey if you look at this 15 min chart, is this an trendless market? Maybe they cannot mark the stocks now to manipulate the index value using the previously chasm like bid/ask on the stocks, that is why they cannot trade now.... If you want to put any views so that Bursamalaysia, SC, MOF or the powers that be can read (hopefully) feel free to comment below.


20090907 1048 FKLI futures 2 min chart trend channel intact for the time being.

Sunday, September 06, 2009


4 hour AUDJPY currency pair, an indicator of commodity prices and risk aversion.(risk taking may be back)

Daily FKLI futures for the bigger perspective.

The best Ipoh Koay Teow in KL. (sorry is non halal food)


The old restaurant

New location for 'Pau Kee'

Ipoh Koay Teow (forgive the poor image quality)

The Changs, who wer in Jln Tong Shin (Ching Hai restaurant) have moved to new premises in Jalan Imbi. Honestly, I think their Ipoh Koay Teow soup is the best outside of Ipoh, they have wanton mee which ain't bad too!(best wanton in town) Address is on the attached map.

Other bloggers like it too:
Tummy Thoughts
You Get What You Give
Thenomadgourmand


"There is the plain fool who does the wrong thing at all times anywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool who thinks he must trade all the time."J Livermore Manchester City FCl Crude Palm Oil

fcpo.blogspot.com

THE END OF AN ERA

From Dragons and Bulls by Stanley Kroll
Intro and Foreword
The Importance of an Investment Strategy
5 The Art of War, by Sun Tau (circa 506 BC) and The Art of Trading Success (circa AD 1994)
That's the way you want to bet/a>
Long-term v Short term trading
Technicals v Fundamentals
Perception v Reality
Part 1: Winners and Losers
Part 2: Winners and Losers
Sun Tzu: The Art of War
Those who tell don't know, those who know don't tell
Why there is no such thing as a "bad market"
The Secret to Trading Success
The Experts, do they know better?
Risk control and money management
Good advice
The 'good bets' business by Larry Hite
Don't lose your shirt
Ed Sykota's secret trend trading system