Tuesday, September 30, 2008

20080930 1549. Classic uptrending move on 5 min Oct FKLI futures.

Friday, September 26, 2008

Have come to know that Bursamalaysia will replace the KLCI with a new 30 stock index, to be known as the FTSE Bursamalaysia KLCI. An interesting development for the FKLI futures market. Amongst improvements are 15 sec updates to index values and components to reflect liquidity and free float.... no more monkey business markiing stocks such as MISC, BAT, PETGAS etc, to 'create false impression of index value'.

The fact that the top 30 companies will form the index components, means each stock will have larger weithting compared to the current 100 share index, KLCI. This will make the index naturally more volatile, and hopefully enhance the volatility of the FKLI futures contract. The possible 30 stocks are probably the ones listed in this pdf.

20080926 1625. The rolling market grind continues for the FKLI futures contract.

20080926 1603. While the high rollers are doing their monthly 'rolling market gathers no profit' thing, the daily chart is interesting, of the FKLI futures.

20080826 1433. My fellow trader comments, 'concentrate like hell, also not much $ to be made'. Rangebound trade continues, but be wary of possible breakout when consolidation like this happens.

20080926 1136. On rolling over days the FKLI is just trapped in tight ranges. Local traders can trade for this miniscule 0.5 to 1 point based on support or resistance, in this case assumed to be the bollinger bands. In this respect, the last week or so of every month provides for crappy trading conditions for directional traders. "A rolling market gathers no profits" These institutions or rollers should pakat and finish their rolls in 1 day la and let the market get on with business.

20080926 My fellow trader comments that "today the spread trade (rollover) will dominate, outright might be sideways" Maybe will put a 20 bollinger band on the 5 min chart for trading in the spot month.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

20080925 Accidently deleted the last post. The 200 ema on 15 min provided formidable support against any short trades. In that situation, there is no choice but to take the loss like a man.... Spread between Sep and Oct is narrowed to the bullish side from 10 to 2. Looks like 'the big dogs' are positioning for a bullish October.... Then again no guarantees and the only problem is that seasonally, Oct is the time of the year that stock market crashes happen.

20080925 1443. Sell FKLI futures at 1023. Will it work out? Time will tell.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

20080924 1616. FKLi futures buy point was the break of 1025.

20080924 1119. FKLI futures narrowed back the discount to cash 1022.5 vs 1023. Sometimes it is dangerous to short against the big discount of futures to cash index value.

20080924 0959. Structure on 15 min FKI futures chart looks like more downside to come. Let's see what happens.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

20080923 1715. FKLI futures 15 min chart,

20080923 1020. The longer term moving averages provided the support for the FKLI futures today.

Monday, September 22, 2008

20080922 "investment Banks" are extinct. The last two dinosaurs of the investment bank secotr in the US, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are now given Bank Holding company status by the Fed. 3 went defunct, Merrill Lynch, bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers. Wow, what a two weeks. The bottom line is greed brought about by bad management form these ivy league MBA types.

Malaysia as usual still has the Investment bank category of Financial Institutions, OSK, Alliance, Hwang DBS etc. How far behind the curve can Malaysia be?

20080922 1536. Nothing much seems to be happening except range trading.... Time to rest.

20080922 1245. 15 min FKLI chart is still above the longer term moving averages..... trend is still up for now. This comment is also poignant about the curbs on short selling.... Hope the authorities here don't meddly with any 'market proppoing up' measures of their own 'legand in their own minds' type thinking.

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Reading a UBS research report, this quote from Alexander Kobler is poignant,

"The only thing we have to fear is fear
itself.” These were the pithy words Franklin
D. Roosevelt used to give courage to the US
population during the dark days of the second
world war. Many market participants
could do with some encouragement in the
present financial crisis. not least the surviving
investment banks. In just six months we
have seen the takeovers of Bear Stearns and
Merrill Lynch and the bankruptcy of
Lehman Brothers, leaving only two of the
five traditional US market leaders still standing.
The kind of encouragement they need
is a strengthening of their capital bases, as
do many smaller banks.
are also taut and in need of soothing.
The major markets have lost over a
quarter of their value this year and seem to
be in free fall. The order of the day has to
be to stay calm. Investors who have kept
their equity weighting within their longterm
risk capacity have no need to act
immediately. Anyone trying to reduce
excessive holdings after holding back until
now is going to be hit hard. Looked at the
other way round though, it also seems too
early to be getting into the market, except
for very trading-oriented investors.
We are in the final stages of a far-reaching
purge in the financial sector. "

So, there will be a buying opportunity for equities for the long term in time to come. Meanwhile the volatility will suit 'trading orientated investors.'

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Ban on short selling till Oct 2
Government agency to take over bad debts/mortgages in the US
Stock market soars, shorties burned
Has the market bottom been seen?

When Malaysia implements the measures in 1998, IMF and foreigners cried foul... Now they cry fair to the US capitalists..... Hypocrisy! And the ban on short selling? That is going to screw up the vlauation of stocks and also the hedging available to options and futures market makers. One thing for sure, we are witnessing history...

Friday, September 19, 2008


20080919 Looking at the 5 min HSI futures chart, we see a move of blibicala proportions. The shorts who pummeled the market yesterday morning, would be po kai today if they did not close out the positions earlier in the run up. The HSI futures trade at HKD50 per point, you can do the calculations on potential disasters.

20080919 1712. Upside breakout from 1015 level in the afternoon session.

20080919 1142. 1010.5 sell triggered, for a quick trade.

20080919 1108. We have four 15 min candles within the impulse bar, setting up some breakout levels.

20080919 1016. Classic H&S on the 1 min chart FKLI futures.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

20080918 1612. What a turnaround in the FKLI futures. Catalyst was the rumour the HK govt stepped into the stock market to buy up the bashed down stocks >1300 pt recovery in the HSI. Nevertheless the chart is the rebound on the 1 min chart. Just looking at the chart one would not short against this trend.

20080918 1224. 5 min FKLI futures chart update, to continue the story from yesterday's breakdown.

20080918 Overnight saw Wall St crashing amid a slew of bad news headlines. Now Morgan Stanley is resorting to mergers with Wauchovia.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

20080917 1715. Some short covering brought FKLI futures off lows, but the chart completes the picture of the 5 min triangle breakout.

20080917 1520. Triangle pattern broke to the downside, and has some follow through.

20080917 1227. FKLI futures 5 min forms triangle.....

20080917 1107. FKLI futures moved up to 1009 before dropping back down again. Been a volatile day, but cash KLCI is hovering just above 1000. Q is will it break today?

20080917 1012 5 min FKLI futures chart. Is it bearish or bullish? Looks like it could well continue to rebound.....

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

20080916 1702. KLCI futures first two days of the trading week, weekly candle is down for the moment. Will there be a rebound soon? Today's FKLI futures price action saw a good sized rebound from oversold levels.

20080916 The foreign broker is already hooked up to the DMA on Bursamalaysia, according to this article. I have also heard the Amfutures rollout to retail for internet based trading will be soon, so the advent of direct access trading may be upon us.

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Uncertain times in the country....

20080914 Uncertain times face the country, with the arrests of civilians under the ISA over the weekend. Zaid Ibrahim, the de facto Law Minister spoke out against the use of the ISA against civilians on Sunday. But one thing is for certain, the KL Composite Index (cash) is still playing out the pattern for the longer term position holders, of a H&S pattern pointing to 790.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

20080911 1245. FKLI futures tick chart, shows which side of th etrade not to be on the morning session.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

20080910 1703. FKLI futures breaks out at 1046 after the lunch session break, but could only reach 1050. Lack of follow through..... Seems some parties want the index (cash) to close down, monkeying with pgas, ioicorp and telekom.

20080910 1218. FKLI futures is moving into the low volatility condition where we might be expecting a breakout soon....

Tuesday, September 09, 2008

20080909 1705. The remarks by Ahmad Ismail Ismail is overhangs the market. When the big dog traders steadily sell down the FKLI futures from the opening, one needs to be aware fast that something is indeed up.

20080909 1226. Tick chart with classic stair step price action downwards on FKLI futures today.

Monday, September 08, 2008

20080908 1713. Why did the cash KLCI plunge down on the last tick of the day? Hanky panky, as manipulators sold down Maybank 20 sen and PLUS 7 sen during the last minute. Behaviour like this should not be condemned but condoned. Let them try to manipulte the index, not necessarily they (or any others) will win... Just be aware this happens and there are such con men in the market.

20080908 1609. Stops triggered to upside, and the uptrend on FKLI futures plays out.

20080908 1525. FKLI futures market resumed trade at 2:30 pm today, after the whole morning untraded, witht he system down. Now it seels the adjustment will take a while, before this upside move resumes.(on the 10 min chart basis) Time will tell.

20080908 1035. The IT guys say that pre opening phase starts at 10:45 and the continuous state trading will be at 11:15 am. We'll see if this is the case...

20080908 0924. Today, Bursamalaysia Derivatives has problems with the PAM system. Don't know exactly what the problem is or the status of trade at the current time, but we do know the regional markets are all up around 3%, in reaction to the Fed's package to shore up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the US.

Saturday, September 06, 2008

Weekly Chart Update: KL Composite Index cash market, the inverted Head & Shoulders is playing out for the longer term position traders.

Friday, September 05, 2008

20080905 1715. FKLI futures breaks lower and closes near lows. I am eagerly awaiting next week for 50 pt discount (basis futures to cash).... if it ever comes....

20080905 1232. FKLI futures is setting up for the next breakout form the consolidation zone.

20080905 1113. Wall St's 2.3% plunge overnight provides impetus for the downside break to continue for the FKLI futures.

Thursday, September 04, 2008

20080904 1245. FKLI futures has moved lower, since the breakdown yesterday afternoon. Trading is lackluster, devoid of participants. Looks like only local trading.

Wednesday, September 03, 2008

Gambling....applies to trading as well!

The Kenny Rogers song 'Gambler' has poignant lyrics (in the chorus) that describe trading....

20080904 1704. When you expect a breakout, and get fakeouts, losses are the result...

2080903 1245  10 min chart of the FKLI Futures indicate that volatility has shrunk, developing a squeeze situation. Could be a breakout likely in the near term, either up or down.

Monday, September 01, 2008

Uptrend on the FKLI Sep 08 contract? Support is now at 1082-84 and 1070-72.

"There is the plain fool who does the wrong thing at all times anywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool who thinks he must trade all the time."J Livermore Manchester City FCl Crude Palm Oil



From Dragons and Bulls by Stanley Kroll
Intro and Foreword
The Importance of an Investment Strategy
5 The Art of War, by Sun Tau (circa 506 BC) and The Art of Trading Success (circa AD 1994)
That's the way you want to bet/a>
Long-term v Short term trading
Technicals v Fundamentals
Perception v Reality
Part 1: Winners and Losers
Part 2: Winners and Losers
Sun Tzu: The Art of War
Those who tell don't know, those who know don't tell
Why there is no such thing as a "bad market"
The Secret to Trading Success
The Experts, do they know better?
Risk control and money management
Good advice
The 'good bets' business by Larry Hite
Don't lose your shirt
Ed Sykota's secret trend trading system