FKLI Futures Trading - Bursamalaysia
This will chronicle trading in the FKLI & FCPO futures. If you don't like what you see/read in this blog, just surf away. These opinions are our personal opinions and just a record of our thoughts..."In evolution, it’s not the biggest, the fiercest nor the smartest that survive, it’s the one that changes the fastest.” I.e. the key word is to adapt the trading style to the markets, until it stops working
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Friday, September 26, 2008
The fact that the top 30 companies will form the index components, means each stock will have larger weithting compared to the current 100 share index, KLCI. This will make the index naturally more volatile, and hopefully enhance the volatility of the FKLI futures contract. The possible 30 stocks are probably the ones listed in this pdf.
20080926 1136. On rolling over days the FKLI is just trapped in tight ranges. Local traders can trade for this miniscule 0.5 to 1 point based on support or resistance, in this case assumed to be the bollinger bands. In this respect, the last week or so of every month provides for crappy trading conditions for directional traders. "A rolling market gathers no profits" These institutions or rollers should pakat and finish their rolls in 1 day la and let the market get on with business.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
20080925 Accidently deleted the last post. The 200 ema on 15 min provided formidable support against any short trades. In that situation, there is no choice but to take the loss like a man.... Spread between Sep and Oct is narrowed to the bullish side from 10 to 2. Looks like 'the big dogs' are positioning for a bullish October.... Then again no guarantees and the only problem is that seasonally, Oct is the time of the year that stock market crashes happen.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Monday, September 22, 2008
20080922 "investment Banks" are extinct. The last two dinosaurs of the investment bank secotr in the US, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are now given Bank Holding company status by the Fed. 3 went defunct, Merrill Lynch, bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers. Wow, what a two weeks. The bottom line is greed brought about by bad management form these ivy league MBA types.
Malaysia as usual still has the Investment bank category of Financial Institutions, OSK, Alliance, Hwang DBS etc. How far behind the curve can Malaysia be?
20080922 1245. 15 min FKLI chart is still above the longer term moving averages..... trend is still up for now. This comment is also poignant about the curbs on short selling.... Hope the authorities here don't meddly with any 'market proppoing up' measures of their own 'legand in their own minds' type thinking.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Reading a UBS research report, this quote from Alexander Kobler is poignant,
"The only thing we have to fear is fear
itself.” These were the pithy words Franklin
D. Roosevelt used to give courage to the US
population during the dark days of the second
world war. Many market participants
could do with some encouragement in the
present financial crisis. not least the surviving
investment banks. In just six months we
have seen the takeovers of Bear Stearns and
Merrill Lynch and the bankruptcy of
Lehman Brothers, leaving only two of the
five traditional US market leaders still standing.
The kind of encouragement they need
is a strengthening of their capital bases, as
do many smaller banks.
are also taut and in need of soothing.
The major markets have lost over a
quarter of their value this year and seem to
be in free fall. The order of the day has to
be to stay calm. Investors who have kept
their equity weighting within their longterm
risk capacity have no need to act
immediately. Anyone trying to reduce
excessive holdings after holding back until
now is going to be hit hard. Looked at the
other way round though, it also seems too
early to be getting into the market, except
for very trading-oriented investors.
We are in the final stages of a far-reaching
purge in the financial sector. "
So, there will be a buying opportunity for equities for the long term in time to come. Meanwhile the volatility will suit 'trading orientated investors.'
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Ban on short selling till Oct 2
Government agency to take over bad debts/mortgages in the US
Stock market soars, shorties burned
Has the market bottom been seen?
When Malaysia implements the measures in 1998, IMF and foreigners cried foul... Now they cry fair to the US capitalists..... Hypocrisy! And the ban on short selling? That is going to screw up the vlauation of stocks and also the hedging available to options and futures market makers. One thing for sure, we are witnessing history...
Friday, September 19, 2008
20080919 Looking at the 5 min HSI futures chart, we see a move of blibicala proportions. The shorts who pummeled the market yesterday morning, would be po kai today if they did not close out the positions earlier in the run up. The HSI futures trade at HKD50 per point, you can do the calculations on potential disasters.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
20080918 1612. What a turnaround in the FKLI futures. Catalyst was the rumour the HK govt stepped into the stock market to buy up the bashed down stocks >1300 pt recovery in the HSI. Nevertheless the chart is the rebound on the 1 min chart. Just looking at the chart one would not short against this trend.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
20080916 The foreign broker is already hooked up to the DMA on Bursamalaysia, according to this article. I have also heard the Amfutures rollout to retail for internet based trading will be soon, so the advent of direct access trading may be upon us.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Uncertain times in the country....
20080914 Uncertain times face the country, with the arrests of civilians under the ISA over the weekend. Zaid Ibrahim, the de facto Law Minister spoke out against the use of the ISA against civilians on Sunday. But one thing is for certain, the KL Composite Index (cash) is still playing out the pattern for the longer term position holders, of a H&S pattern pointing to 790.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Tuesday, September 09, 2008
Monday, September 08, 2008
Saturday, September 06, 2008
Friday, September 05, 2008
Thursday, September 04, 2008
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
Gambling....applies to trading as well!
Monday, September 01, 2008
"There is the plain fool who does the wrong thing at all times anywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool who thinks he must trade all the time."J Livermore
THE END OF AN ERA
From Dragons and Bulls by Stanley Kroll
Intro and Foreword
The Importance of an Investment Strategy
5 The Art of War, by Sun Tau (circa 506 BC) and The Art of Trading Success (circa AD 1994)
That's the way you want to bet/a>
Long-term v Short term trading
Technicals v Fundamentals
Perception v Reality
Part 1: Winners and Losers
Part 2: Winners and Losers
Sun Tzu: The Art of War
Those who tell don't know, those who know don't tell
Why there is no such thing as a "bad market"
The Secret to Trading Success
The Experts, do they know better?
Risk control and money management
The 'good bets' business by Larry Hite
Don't lose your shirt
Ed Sykota's secret trend trading system