Tuesday, August 31, 2010


Looks like the Arsenal-Mark Schwarzer deal is off.... So, can't see more of the Socceroos stopper in action on TV.

ES and NQ index futures 2 min charts for opening tonight. With Bursamalaysia connection to Globex, here's hoping the traders get access to these products, at CME local rates.

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Gunners goalkeeper transfer sage nearing conclusion

Transfer deadline day, Arsenal's pursuit of Mark Schwarzer is coming to a head...

20100831 SPI futures 1 min short setup...

Monday, August 30, 2010

Michelle Wie wins a 2nd LPGA tournament

After winning the Canadian Open over the weekend, she is rightfully where she belongs, near the top women's golf...


20100830 FKLI 5 min chart, with the holiday tomorrow, will the index be marked up?

Something to damn George Bush for..
>br>




The con job on Petgas (Petronas Gas) this morning:

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Disappointment as Man City lost to a last min goal v Sunderland. Doesn't justify the $millions spent. Just like in trading, the bigger they are no matter how much $$ they think they have, manipulation does not pay off. Case in point FCPO....

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20100827 HP and Dell are having a takeover battle over 3PAR, a cloud computing company.  .... the employees and owners of 3PAR who has any share options are laughing to the bank. HP and Dell are both tech companies with huge cashpiles in the billions. Another nail in the double dip story...

20100830 Settlement day. They market Petgas stock up to cause the index to climax at 1428...

Sunday, August 29, 2010

The Sydney Swans beat Brisbane Lions 16.10 (106) to 10.8 (68) to book a home final with Carlton. The final 8 stands as shown.

Saturday, August 28, 2010

Tiger Woods regains some form after his divorce with ex wife Elin Nordegren. Like trading, if one is not right emotionally or has something in life bothering oneself, the performance is not peak...

Don't you think Tiger is crazy to stray from this marriage? Anyway he will be trying to keep the no 1 spot on the world rankings.

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Emini S&P500 futures reverses off the mornig lows.(15 min) Looks like Raubini's cronies covering.... GDP came in at 1.6% for the 2nd quarter, another nail in the 'double dip' story...


Where is the $ flowing? FBM KLCI and FBM70 (4 hr charts). And throw in a chart of the 'darling' stocks of the retail inve, Supermax.

It is always good to remember the adage of value investing, "when you buy a stock, have expectations that it will just as likely go up 33% as it will go down 50%".

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I agree with this guy's comments on the Double dipstickers view of the probability of double dip recession. Basically it is FBS. And these ivy leaguers and academics get huge research grants or huge salaries/bonuses, to make the.

But I don't agree that these economists/strategists' are well intentioned. They are basically expousing a view to align market direction to their firm's positions.(eg Goldman Sachs) Don't believe any reseach that a firm which has a proprietary trading desk taking positions. None of the research/advice is independent nor objective.

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Friday, August 27, 2010

20100829 Looks like the Schwarzer move to the Gunners are coming to a climzx.

Fulham targeting Santa Cruz and Shay Given of Man City.... looks like the Arsenal Schwarzer chase is nearing conclusion.

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20100827 1512 Sime Darby daily chart.... breakout. So it seems the last of the Mohicans were scared out dog piling panic sells on the so called "news" of losses in the company....

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2010827 1057 Those dog piling into shorts two days ago on huge volume, based on the manipulated 'cargo surveyor' numbers, today are really turning into turtle soup.... 15 min fcpo futures.


20100826 Sime Darby Bhd, I heard a comment from a remisier today that this company is 'crippled and on one leg...'
In May, focus on the right things like plantation, one would be able to pick up Sime on the 'cheap', when all were panicking and lamblasting the company...

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Thursday, August 26, 2010

The saga continues, will the Gunners get a new no 1, one of the best goalkeepers in the world, Mark Schwarzer, or will Fulham's greed to get more $$ torpedo the deal... Watch this space.

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20100826 1715 FKLI futures closes at the highs for the day...


20100826 1800 FCPO futures 15 min, with the key level (identified yesterday) at 2497.


Whenever I see these types of general news media headlines, alarm bells ring. Anyway it is good for most people's stock portfolios or unit trust investments.....

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20100826 1548 FKLI futures 5 min chart, breaks out of the 1396 upper resistance. Now there is a divergence, which may play out (short) or turn into a Hound of the Baskerville signal.(long)

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20100826 0908 FKLI futures 5 min chart.... 1391.5 and 1396 is the range...until the breakout.

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Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Homosapiens, monkeys, GFC, trading...


An interesting insight into human being's biases that will usually stop aspiring individuals succeding at trading or the financial markets...

There are two evolutionary biases common to humans and monkeys, risk aversion and loss aversion. Risk aversion means that given a choice between a safe option (extra $500) and a risky option (a risky bet to risk 1000 to get another 1000) subjects tend to take the easy option. In trading then once a trade goes into profit, the tendency os to take profit quickly and not let the trade run.

The other is loss aversion, which means the subjects hate losses, because they keep thinking in relative terms, eg on where they bought a stock at, and now it has fallen and in a loss situation. They tend to take the more risky situation in the decision tree, ie average the trade down in the hope for a rebound, in order to mitigate the loss, which they hate.

20100825 1756 FCPO futures gyrates around key level 2497.

20100825 1715 FKLI futures 5 min chart at the close.

20100825 1632 2497 provided the turtle soup level off of which to trade...


Looks pretty coincidental bad news:

S&P lowers Ireland credit rating
US existing home sales plummet sharply

No recession also will be moulded into a recession, but remember it needs 2 consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.(GDP)

They are so powerful that even breaking the law, get charged, just get off scott free with a fraction of their ill gotten profits as fine, no onw went to jail, no fault found or guilt admitted. With that power, they can move the markets at will.

20100825 0901 1396 remains the focus for FKLI futures.

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

20100824 From thestar.com.my:

"World stock markets retreat

World stock markets retreated Tuesday as the strong yen knocked Japanese shares and investors anticipated more bad news from U.S. economic reports this week."

20100824 1709 The break of 1396 level was brief, traded >400+ contracts at that level... Maybe in the days ahead 1396 will be a level to watch.

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Goldman Sachs says "25% chance of double dip"=bullshit

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Keith Toh <keithytoh@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, Aug 24, 2010 at 11:06 AM
Subject: "25% chance of double dip"=bullshit
To: keithytoh@gmail.com


I lean towards the definition of "2 consecutive quarters of negative economic growth"

"In a 1975 New York Times article, economic statistician Julius Shiskin suggested several rules of thumb for defining a recession, one of which was "two down quarters of GDP".[3] In time, the other rules of thumb were forgotten,[4] and a recession is now often defined simply as a period when GDP falls (negative real economic growth) for at least two quarters.[5][6] Some economists prefer a definition of a 1.5% rise in unemployment within 12 months.[7]

In the United States, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally seen as the authority for dating US recessions. The NBER defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in [the] economic activity spread across the country, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP growth, real personal income, employment (non-farm payrolls), industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."[8] Almost universally, academics, economists, policy makers, and businesses defer to the determination by the NBER for the precise dating of a recession's onset and end."

because it is objective. Eiother black or white, not grey. Damn ivy League brains like in Goldman Sachs, lean towards grey to hoodwink the public.

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Man City 3-0 Liverpool

Wow, what a result. Looks like Mancini is getting ti together.

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20100824 0943 If 1396 goes, maybe the FKLI futures will test lower....Let's see.

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Monday, August 23, 2010

20100823 1715 FKLI futures 5 min chart, the buy on dip strategy...

20100823 1719 Nov FCPO futures 15 min chart, when the market closes above the High of the Low Bar=long.... What can we say, FKLI futures closes 1401, a prelude to the parabolic move...?????

20100823 Daily KLCI RSI(14) has hit the 80 level, extremely overbought? My trading partner alluded me to this fact... Normally when the market tops, it is a process whereby divergence will take effect. With daily rsi>80, inevitably when the market corrects will be a shp one.. Let's if he is correct.

I think the market is at crossroad, either shoot up vertically, or correct sharply...

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First Indian to win PGA Tour tournament, does sub continent proud...

Arjun Atwal, above, made history last night when he won the Wyndham Championship by one stroke to become the first Indian to win on the PGA Tour. Atwal, 37, who started the final round with a three-stroke lead, secured victory by sinking a pressure-packed putt for par from seven feet at the final hole.

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20100823 0923 Might get to< 1387?

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20100823 0903 Cash KL CI breaches 1400... FKLI futures, might be a good idea to buy on retracement.

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Sunday, August 22, 2010

Swans power into 5th on AFL premiership ladder

The Sydney Swans beat Western Bulldogs 17.12 (114) to 10.10 (70) to move into 5th with a genuine chance of playoffs to be played at the SCG, ... a repeat farewell for Brett Kirk and Paul Roos. Anyway they only need to beat the Lions next week to ensure a home berth in the finals...


On the side note, it seems the Australian Federal Election 2010 has resulted in a 71-71 for both parties, a hung parliament. The Independent lower house memberw will decide the balance of power... Watch out for fireworks in the A$.

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"There is the plain fool who does the wrong thing at all times anywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool who thinks he must trade all the time."J Livermore Manchester City FCl Crude Palm Oil

fcpo.blogspot.com

THE END OF AN ERA

From Dragons and Bulls by Stanley Kroll
Intro and Foreword
The Importance of an Investment Strategy
5 The Art of War, by Sun Tau (circa 506 BC) and The Art of Trading Success (circa AD 1994)
That's the way you want to bet/a>
Long-term v Short term trading
Technicals v Fundamentals
Perception v Reality
Part 1: Winners and Losers
Part 2: Winners and Losers
Sun Tzu: The Art of War
Those who tell don't know, those who know don't tell
Why there is no such thing as a "bad market"
The Secret to Trading Success
The Experts, do they know better?
Risk control and money management
Good advice
The 'good bets' business by Larry Hite
Don't lose your shirt
Ed Sykota's secret trend trading system