Friday, June 07, 2013

Beware the Black Swan

"Nobody is bigger than the market."

"You are only as good as your last trade"

"90% of all futures will lose their money"

We need to be realistic, this is a zero sum game every RM won there is an RM lost.

There was a new trader who came into the futures market and was the "top volume" trader instantly on FKLI futures. The exchange was so proud of this individual for 11 months. Well on 6 May 2013, this trader took one one big gamble too many and lost 300k. He overleveraged and thus the account resulted in overloss which e could nt pay up. Nick Leeson eat your heart out. So, being te "top trader" in volume for 11 months probably did not garner any profits, as he cannot even fork out 300k to reactivate his trading activities as a Local. Moral: Trade for Profits, not for Volume and do't GAMBLE.

On the other side of the coin, one retail customer on that famous day made 800K. For every loser there is a winner. You don't have to churn volume as a Local to make $.

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"There is the plain fool who does the wrong thing at all times anywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool who thinks he must trade all the time."J Livermore Manchester City FCl Crude Palm Oil

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From Dragons and Bulls by Stanley Kroll
Introduction and Foreword
The Importance of an Investment Strategy
5 The Art of War, by Sun Tau (circa 506 BC) and The Art of Trading Success (circa AD 1994)
That's the way you want to bet
Long-term v Short term trading
Technicals v Fundamentals
Perception v Reality
Part 1: Winners and Losers
Part 2: Winners and Losers
Sun Tzu: The Art of War
Those who tell don't know, those who know don't tell
Why there is no such thing as a "bad market"
The Secret to Trading Success
The Experts, do they know better?
Risk control and money management
Larry Hite: The Billion Dollar fund Manager
Systems Trading:Kroll's Suggested Method
Buy the Strength Sell the Weakness
Good advice
The 'good bets' business by Larry Hite
Don't lose your shirt
Ed Sykota's secret trend trading system