Wednesday, February 29, 2012

20120229 ENVAIR, like the pattern if it can close above the descending resistance trendline...

Dow closes above 13000

Monday, February 27, 2012

Man or Muppet


Beat Song, Academy Awards

Report: Cardiff City v Liverpool - English Carling Cup - ESPN Soccernet

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/report?id=337027&cc=4716

Sunday, February 26, 2012

Report: Manchester City v Blackburn Rovers - Barclays Premier League - ESPN Soccernet

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/report?id=318200&cc=4716

Saturday, February 25, 2012

Liverpool's Craig Bellamy finds loyalties split in Carling Cup - ESPN Soccernet

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/news/story/_/id/1026684/liverpool's-craig-bellamy-finds-loyalties-split-in-carling-cup?cc=4716

Carlos Tevez is back for the Sky Blues...

20120224 Nice trend on Dollar Yen.

Friday, February 24, 2012

"Now let us deepen our understanding of when the market will be ready for us o
act. The market itself gives us the clues that tell us what to do. All that we must
do to learn is listen to it.

IT IS All ABOUT MISDIRECTION

Things are not always what they seem. If they were, it would be easy for anyone to
have a look at the market and to make money. This is not the case. You first must
know where to look.The market will very often go against public opinion. This is because people
are so enthusiastic about the market's immediate behavior that they enter a kind of
hypnotic trance.
In a bull market, no one wants to be told about reversals or the end of the trend.
They all want to be where the money is being made. This is fme as long as the
market maintains its trend. The problem with this approach is that enthusiasm takes
a very long time to build. It accumulates in a slow, snowballing motion as a result
of stories of other people's success in the market.
When knowledge of the successful buyers is widespread and the public is enthu-
siastic, it is already too late and the market will reverse. Why'? Because the all-
important buying has already taken place. In fact, very soon the only thing that
will matter is selling. The public, fully ignorant of this, believes that it is at the
beginning of a move that will last for a long, long time. This is no longer true when
the public is fully aware that a bull market is underway.
Why is there such public ignorance'? Simple! The answer is 'misdirection.' The
public is misdirected by opinion. There is an abysmal difference between 'opinion'
and 'knowledge.'
'Opinion' is what you hear around you, what you are told by someone, whether
it is the media, a professional, or whoever. It does not really matter who is telling"

From Pilepe Tudela's book, "The Secret Code of Japanese Candlesticks".

Dollar Yen, 60 min breakout!

Thursday, February 23, 2012


Fund manager performance: 79% don't beat the S&P - Feb. 23, 2012

http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/23/pf/fund_manager_performance.moneymag/index.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fmoney_latest+%28Latest+News%29

City beat Porto 4-0 in the Europa League.

The Book of Five Rings




Lessons and principles of battle.(trading)

Positive reinforcement

Shawn Achor: The happy secret to better work

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

20120222 Well, in bull markets there are lemons too. MHB, a result of over exuberance and over speculation after the IPO...

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

More from Dr Elder, on those dreaming to day trade (page 141)

Some professional futures traders dispense with computers alto-
gether. They quit their day jobs and go on the floor. Some move to a
city that has an exchange where they buy or lease a seat. Costs are
higher on bigger exchanges that handle high volumes in popular mar-
kets, and cheaper on smaller exchanges in lesser markets. The best
way to learn is to get a job as a clerk on the floor and work for some-
one, but this option is open only to the young—the floor generally
doesn't hire people over 25. They want them young, pliable, and with-
out any preconceived ideas.
Psychology
The great paradox of day-trading is that it demands the highest level of
discipline, while attracting the most impulsive, addictive, and gambling-
prone personalities. If trading is a thrill, then day-trading provides the
best rush. It is a joy to recognize a pattern on your screen, put in an
order, and watch the market explode in a stiff rise, stuffing thousands
of dollars into your pockets. A former military pilot said that day-
trading was more exciting than sex or flying jet aircraft.
Corporate traders are in the market because their companies gave
them jobs. Private traders enter for reasons that are partly rational and
partly irrational. The only rational reason is to make money, but a prof-
itable day-trade delivers such a great high that it sweeps most people
off their feet. Flooded with pleasure, they go looking for the next high
and lose money.
The purpose of any business is to make money. A well-run business
also gratifres many of its owners' and employees' psychological needs,
but money is the pivot of the enterprise. Traders who become hooked
on thrills take their eyes off the money and jump into impulsive trades.
Vendors encourage day-traders because losers spend like drunken
sailors on software, data, systems, and even coaches, most of whom
have never traded or busted out. Go into any port area, and you'll
see plenty of bars, brothels, and tattoo parlors. Go into day-trading,
and you'll see more vendors than you can shake a stick at. There is money
to be made from turkeys whose market life is measured in months
or weeks.
Successful day-traders test patterns and systems, measure risks and
rewards, and focus on building equity. Winners tend to be emotionally
cool. If day-trading attracts you, you must answer several questi

From p123 of "Come Into My Trading Room", Dr Alexander Elder
 
"Beginners become emotional when they trade, but if you want to
survive and succeed, you must develop discipline. The moment
you become aware of feeling fear or joy, use that as a signal to tighten
your discipline and follow your system. You developed that system
when the markets were closed and you felt calm. Now it gives you
your only chance of survival and success in the markets.
The idea of an automatic trading system is fundamentally flawed. If
those systems could work, then the smartest guy with the biggest com-
puter would have cornered the market long ago. Automatic systems do
not work because the market is not a mechanical or electronic entity
that follows the laws of physics. It is a huge crowd of people acting in
accordance with the imperfect laws of mass psychology. Physics and
mathematics can help, but trading decisions must take psychology into
account.
\When you talk with a pro, one of the first questions he'll ask—or
not even ask because he'll know the answer from a few of your com-
ments—is whether you are a discretionary trader or a system trader.
A discretionary trader takes in market information and analyzes it using
several technical tools. He is likely to shift and apply somewhat different
tools to different markets at different times. I-Iis decision-making tree has
many branches, and he follows them at different times as market condi-
tions change. All branches are connected to the sturdy trunk of his deci-
sion-making tree, an inviolate set of rules for risk control.
A system trader develops a mechanical set of rules for entering and
exiting trades. He backtests them and puts them on autopilot. At that
point, an amateur and a pro go in opposite directions. An amateur,
frightened by the market, feels relieved that a system"

Monday, February 20, 2012

Warren Buffett's no 2 principle

"2. Be Willing To Be Different: Don't base your decisions upon what everyone is saying or doing. When Warren Buffett began managing money in 1956 with $100,000 cobbled together from a handful of investors, he was dubbed an oddball. He worked in Omaha, not Wall Street, and he refused to tell his parents where he was putting their money. People predicted that he'd fail, but when he closed his partnership 14 years later, it was worth more than $100 million. Instead of following the crowd, he looked for undervalued investments and ended up vastly beating the market average every single year. To Warren Buffett, the average is just that -- what everybody else is doing. to be above average, you need to measure yourself by what he calls the Inner Scorecard, judging yourself by your own standards and not the world's. "

Don't be a sucker, and do what the crowd does, be different and stand out from the rest.

Jeremy Lin Interview With Rachel Nichols From ESPN

http://dajaz1.com/2012/02/20/jeremy-lin-interview-with-rachel-nichols-from-espn/

Dollar yen


The Jeremy Lin/New York Knicks continue with a win over last season's champions, Dallas Mavericks

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Warren Buffett Rules for Cuccess

2. Be Willing To Be Different: Don't base your decisions upon what everyone is saying or doing. When Warren Buffett began managing money in 1956 with $100,000 cobbled together from a handful of investors, he was dubbed an oddball. He worked in Omaha, not Wall Street, and he refused to tell his parents where he was putting their money. People predicted that he'd fail, but when he closed his partnership 14 years later, it was worth more than $100 million. Instead of following the crowd, he looked for undervalued investments and ended up vastly beating the market average every single year. To Warren Buffett, the average is just that -- what everybody else is doing. to be above average, you need to measure yourself by what he calls the Inner Scorecard, judging yourself by your own standards and not the world's. //-->

Sunday, February 19, 2012

"Traders come to the markets with great expectations, but few make
profits and most wash out. The industry hides good statistics from
the public, while promoting its Big Lie that money lost bv losers goes
to winners. In fact, vvinners collect only a fraction ofthe monev lost by
losers. The bulk of losses goes to the trading industry as the cost of
doing business—commissions, slippage, and expenses—bv both win-
ners and losers. A successful trader must hop over several high hur-
dles—and keep hoppin"

Alexander Elder, "Come into My Trading Room" page 48.
Basically if the trading costs of commissions, slippage and expenses are too much the hurdles to a trader's success gets bigger. ..

BTW Sally Pearson is the hot favourite for the Olympic gold in the 100m hurdles for women.

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Jeremy Lin: Pattern of Turnovers Is Achilles' Heel for Knicks PG | Bleacher Report

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1070777-hornets-vs-knicks-live-reaction-jeremy-lin-updates-video-and-more#/articles/1070918-jeremy-lin-horrendous-pattern-of-turnovers-is-achilles-heel-for-knicks-pg

Saturday, February 18, 2012

Add RSAWIT to the list.... "Let the money work for you, not WORK for the money"

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Revisiting the dog stocks

There are some dogs that can bring home the bacon, especially in an environment of "a rising tide raises all boats" and "markets climb the wall of worry".(woories about the bad economy, Greece, 'markets rising only due to stimulus' 'chip stocks will suffer due to strong US dollar' 'Aiya, that ACE stock no volume la, buy better ones' etc etc)
BIMB, UNISEM, MBSB, KGB

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Carlos, you are not alone. We all have, at some time or the other felt like that.

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Friday, February 17, 2012

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/report?id=334845&cc=4716

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20120217 RSAWIT breaks out into new high territory.... The rights issue was priced at 0.80, and since then it has been quite a ride.... The opinion was given to enter at RM0.90, but as usual the 'active' traders succumbed to fear and failed to see the trees for the word, and were not aboard.(despite having the stock on the To Watch list)

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Thursday, February 16, 2012

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How to suceed cin business and have a vibrant economy-Germany

From Foreign Correspondent program of the ABC T.V. Basically don't get greedy and use leverage from the ah long...

"The system in Bavaria works. Unlike in Greece, you don't have to know someone or bribe someone to get things done."

Back in 2010, we went to the SGX Symposium, where SGX Local entry was much easier than BursaD. We suggested BMD relax entry rules.
 
Now BursaD held it's roadshow to recruit new Local Participant, with no entry requirements, but with quota to trade 1000 contracts per month to enjoy beneficial rebates of scratch and day trades.
 
If you ask me, those keen to take up LP, you can try for 3 months. But bear in mind profits will be subject to income tax with 50% exemption. In addition after the 3 months, trading <1000 contracts, you will lose the 'edge' of scratch trade and day trade rebates, which is essential for the short term scalping style. One would not expect new LP to lift heavyweight type weights, it takes time to build muscles to go from light weights to heavyweight category, if at all.
 
My suggestion to BursaD is:
1 Fine if you want to impose a quota 1000 contracts
2 Quota met, the scratch trade rebates will be enjoyed by LP
3 Day trade rebates should be given regardless of the volume.
 
BMD, are you listening?

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

The Linsanity phenomena

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No sooner than Greece Parliament passes the austerity, one call from the manipulators sees Moody's getting out the ratings machine gun downgrade for 6 Eurozone countries. Someone wants the markets down...

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Buffett has the last laugh

When Warren Buffett invested US5 billion into Bank of America, the market was full of hysterical doomsdayers saying he was 'wrong' and they subsequently tried to prove him wrong by driving the price below US5.00 per share. Now he is laughing to the bank... The power of Value Investing philosophy.

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When prices go up, there is always a reason (cpo at 3 week high after Greece passes bill), AFTER the fact. Hence listen to Ed Sykota in his Whipsaw song, "What do you do with a hot news flash? You stash that flash in the trash!"
FACT: What is the attrition rate for Local Participants? It is about 50%. Over a ong period of time there are now 128 registered LP, only 66 are trading now.

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The Mystery of the Stock Market Flash Crash - YouTube






Few comments:
1 When the algos run amok one should get a good idea how the market might react
2 Fear and greed, don't get overly excited and hysterical like the commentators in the videos.
3 Algos are made by humans, and like humans they are prone to insanity=doing something that you know is wrong but still doing it anyway...

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The pigs are coming...

The saying goes:
"Bulls get fed, Bears get fed, but the pigs get slaughtered"

High frequency trading is coming, the Bursa says. We better focus and be there to slaughter the HFT pigs, when their emotionless computers run amok like the flash crash of May 6 2010.

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Monday, February 13, 2012

20120213 MBSB weekly. Closes today at 2.36. This is one of those ten baggers that come round once in a while...

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Advice from a 30 year market veteran

Stanley Kroll, in pp52-53 of his book, Dragons and Bulls.

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Whitney Houston



Since this is a bull market, there are stocks that have been called 'possibly the best value stock on Bursa'=London Biscuit. Nice weekly chart, trending with the gap up today??

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Wednesday, February 08, 2012

This is a very interesting article of the greed that is in the market, and the ignorance of the investing/trading public that pervade the current bull market...
If they are so puzzled, should they not be writing a report to categorically avoid this asset class and more generally the convoluted call/put warrant market in general?

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Tuesday, February 07, 2012

Bank Negara FX Liberalisation

As announced on Jan 30, 2012, the new measures basically open up the way for domestic participants in the capital markets to engage in new fx related instruments for example margin fx trading witht eh domestic banks.... but non Ringgit related. If the participant converts ringgit into say us dollars, euros or aussie dollars, they are free to invest that foreign currency in whatever they want be it domestically created products or foreign products. Opens up a whole new world of trading opportunities....

So, in terms of Bursamalaysia stocks, banks/financial institutions to be rerated upwards?

News reports with the story "Malaysia issues tax free palm oil export quotas." I guess some parties who bought up the cpo futures last Friday already knew.... If you are fortunate enough to be in the inner circle, the you might buy volume with confidence, otherwise forget about trading volume and making the big bucks.

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Monday, February 06, 2012

Prem Lge: Man Utd rescue draw with Chelsea, Newcastle beat Villa - ESPN Soccernet


With united slip up, city edge two points clear

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/news/story/_/id/1018232/prem-lge:-man-utd-rescue-draw-with-chelsea,-newcastle-beat-villa?cc=4716

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Sunday, February 05, 2012

Heat is now on man united



http://soccernet.espn.go.com/news/story/_/id/1017544/prem:-man-city-beat-fulham,-arsenal-demolish-blackburn?cc=4716

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"There is the plain fool who does the wrong thing at all times anywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool who thinks he must trade all the time."J Livermore Manchester City FCl Crude Palm Oil

fcpo.blogspot.com

THE END OF AN ERA

From Dragons and Bulls by Stanley Kroll
Intro and Foreword
The Importance of an Investment Strategy
5 The Art of War, by Sun Tau (circa 506 BC) and The Art of Trading Success (circa AD 1994)
That's the way you want to bet/a>
Long-term v Short term trading
Technicals v Fundamentals
Perception v Reality
Part 1: Winners and Losers
Part 2: Winners and Losers
Sun Tzu: The Art of War
Those who tell don't know, those who know don't tell
Why there is no such thing as a "bad market"
The Secret to Trading Success
The Experts, do they know better?
Risk control and money management
Good advice
The 'good bets' business by Larry Hite
Don't lose your shirt
Ed Sykota's secret trend trading system