Tuesday, July 31, 2007

20070731 1710. FKLI Aug contract makes a 13 point move upwards from the breakout level of 1348. Profits from this breakout more than compensates for whatever losses form the 1343.5 short level. Discipline and belief in a system can take the nervousness, jittery thoughts that can sabotage a trader's p&l.

20070731 1530. FKLI breaks down before lunch, but that one was one without momentum. 1348 break to the upside after lunch proves a bit better.

20070731 1030. FKLI Aug contract sets up breakout levels at 343.5 (for shorts) and 1348 (for longs). Let's see how these pan out.

Monday, July 30, 2007

20070730 FKLI futures daily chart shows the bigger picture for the general market. With the 8 crossover of the 21 exp moving averages, we'd expect the path of least resistance to be to the downside.

20070730 1715. Aug FKLI contract moves up to 1342.5 and peters out. Not a very encouraging sign for the bulls, or it could be a sign of jittery longs closing out positions for fear of being long overnight. If the Dow crashes tonight, then those who pumped up Timecom (previous post) in a B.C.S. (Boh Chai Si="dun know how to die" in Hokkien) will get the just rewards.

20070730 1603. With the downdraft in the world indices due to 'fears of impending credit crunch...", we can see some hero stocks like Time.com on Bursamalaysia performing much better on a relative basis. Is this a sign of strength on Bursamalaysia stock market, or are the 'fears' overblown and just anticipated psychology. Time will tell.

20070730 1515. FKLI levels for the breakout from consolidation trade for today. Currently on a long signal from 34 on the aug FKLI contract.

Sunday, July 29, 2007

20070727 OK, back from a break, to see the bloodbath on the regional and us indices. The weekly chart of the FKLI futures provides the bigger picture. the question is whether the sideways movement we have seen for the past few months is a topping formation into a reversal, or is the general uptrend still intact. If the latter is the case, the bottom trendline test will provide buying opportunities for value investing pundits.

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

20070724 1704. Levels for today's breakout for the FKLI futures contract. The second chart shows the revolution in the small caps. The FTSE SmallCap index has been on a tear, way outperforming the FBM100 index.(blue chips) Those that are aggressive in trading these shares have been reaping the harvest.

20070724 1230. KLCI has broken above the consolidation range, seems to be heading upwards. Time will tell how far it will go and whether 1400 can be breached.

20070724 POSHLDG, suffered from a battering from 'traders' who got spooked by the Transmile scandal and cut all their positions at RM4.20 and below. The truth of the market is that those under the kosh of having the mindset 'to perform' and 'have to make money' mindset will always lose out. A value orientated player wouldn't have flinched to step in and take the stock off the weak hands that were jittery and influenced by the day to day fluctuation, caused by rumours, inuendo, research opinions etc. A lesson to have the proper 'philosophical' mindset when investing in stocks. The operative word is 'investing'. 90% of those who try to trade the stocks will lose all their money, while only 10% succeed but the way to wealth building is to be in for the long haul. In that event, while those 90% are scrambling to 'trade' for the normal return, the longerterm player (who had entered years before) would look for opportunity to unload to them.

Monday, July 23, 2007

20070723 1712. FKLI futures settles back at 5:12 pm.

20070723 1550. The long at 1373 proves to be a good one, with a big move in the FKLI futures to the upside. Trading is like fishing, throw the line into the ocean enough times, sometime we will land the big one.

20070723 1053. FKLI longs triggered at 1373. Seems to have no momentum though.

0723 1037. KLCI cash is trapped in a range. Might be good to wait for the move out of the range to put on the next trade for position holders.

Sunday, July 22, 2007

Grand Mega development plans

20070720 These types of Mega property development plans look suspiciously like the Pilecon Bhd type plans back in the early 1990s (also in Johore). It is not a 'given' for the companies to make roaring profits as 'forecast', so investors might do well to evaluate them in light of history.

20070720 This is a table showing the Malaysian banks' ranking by market cpaitalisation. There are calls for banks to merge locally in order to compete more with the advent of liberalisation. Could this be the next catalyst that drives the KLCI above 1400?

Friday, July 20, 2007

20070720 1715. FKLI broke the upper channel line after lunch, but again movement is restricted to about 3 points, not much followthrough for the futures to shout about.

20070720 1245. FKLI gaps up again.(2nd day in a row) We have osme levels for breakout set up in the few candles before the lunch session break. Let's see if FKLI will have the momentum to follow through.

20070720 JADE CPO not quite jilo volume got 3 contracts (as at 11am) traded. Bursamalaysia don't have to worry toomuch.(for now) Bursa has something JADE doesn't, a valuable asset in the population of local participants, who trade with day trade rebates and scratch trade concessions. JADE made fatal error to not have humans to provide liquidity pool.

Thursday, July 19, 2007

20070719 1715. Upside breakout for the FKLI futures from 1366. proved to be the good one today. However profits would only serve to compensate for the loss on the downside breakout.

20070719 1200. FKLI breakout levels today.

20070719 1119. The FTSE Bursamalaysia large 30 index ETF started trading today. As at 11:09am encouraging volume of 1.6 m units were traded. A very good start, whether the interest in this market will sustain is another question. Rest assured, we will be looking at a FBM30 large index futures soon from Bursamalaysia Derivatives.

Bursamalaysia website, list a comparison of trading ETF, Stocks and unit trusts in its website.(screenshot) For a market to succeed, there must be active participation from a broad range of traders. One suggestion is to half the commission charged and SCAN fees and lobby the government to halve the stamp duty. Then we might get more active participation from the punters.

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

20070718 1559. The corresponding short on the FKI at 1365 breakout level, proves equally fruitful.

20070718 1133. FKLI has broken out of the upper breakout level at 1369. This move was very fast and is the ideal for the scalpers to get into the move.

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

20070717 1715. Had two breakouts today, 1373 breakout went as high as 1375.5 and that was it. Near the closing of the FKLI 1367.5 broke with limited movement again (constrained by the trading hours)

20070717 1046. Breakout levels for today comes at this juncture for the FKLI. 1367.5 and 1373. Remember that risk management in trading is an essential ingredient to successful trading.

Monday, July 16, 2007

20070716 1627. Long breakout at 1385.5 failed. Proper risk management could mitigate the loss. The short trigger at 1382.5 is now going nicely.

20070716 1158. Breakout levels setup on the FKI at 1382.5 and 1385.5.

Friday, July 13, 2007

20070713 1213. Stray ticks in trading means no breakout levels set up so far today. FKLI opened with a big gap of 21 points this morning in response to the Dow Jones 280+ point rise overnight.

Thursday, July 12, 2007

20070712 1637. After an erratic day, we have some levels set up at 1362 and 1365.t for the Jul FKLI contract to trade from. But caution prevail, as it is near the end of the day.

20070712 1052. FKLI busts up through the resistance trendline. This means the downtrend has lost momentum on this 30 min chart.

20070712 0859. FKLI gaps up in response to the Dow rebound overnight. Resistance in the downtrend comes at the trendline.

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

20070711 1715. FKLI settles near the lows of the day. A day of two trades today, with mixed results.

20070711 1456. Breakout at 1357.5 fails twice, results in the loss. The reverse trade (short at 1353) is now in play. Hopefully can make the loss form the long breakout back.

20070710 1018. At the close of the 10;15 candle, breakout levels set up at 1353 and 1357.5. Let's see what happens to the FKLI futures contract at these levels.

Tuesday, July 10, 2007

20070710 1715. The long triggered at 1369 but could only go 2 points in favour of the trade, before failing and reversing to close near the lows.

20070710 1458. FKLI sets up breakout levels at 1365.5 and 1369. Very tight brekaout range means needing tight stop losses on any trade.

20070710 1049. From the price action yesterday, we could guess that the spring was coiled, loaded and ready to explode. Only the direction remained to be determined. Solution: watch for break of trendlines or support/resistance, in this case the support broke at around 1374-75, a short would have been rewarding.

Monday, July 09, 2007

20070709 1715. The breakout petered out into a sideways range. A failure, although FKLI did reach a low of 1375.5, but with the price action forming a "coiling of the spring", we might get a significant berakout for tomorrow's trade in FKLI July 07 futures. Fingers crossed.

20070709 1208. On the 6th 15 min cnadle, FKLI set up breakout levels 1379 and 1382.5, of which shorts were triggered at 1379. The position is still short unless 1382.5 is breached.

Thursday, July 05, 2007

20070705 1715. FKLI breaks the lower breakout llevel at 1368 and moves to low of 1359. However some short covering brings FKLI back to close off lows. This was a nice short that really confirmed with the increased volume in the first 15 min of the 2nd session.

20070705 1129. At the end of this 15 min candle, we might be setting up breakout levels for the FKLI futures 1368 and 1374. See what happens.

Wednesday, July 04, 2007

20070703 1715. After some hesistation, FKLI moves up to close near the highs of the day. This is a classic 'trend day' move, where despite the gap up, moves up without much retracement to close near highs.

Tuesday, July 03, 2007

20070703 1438. The 89 minute chart of the KLCI cash index shows which side of the trade to be on.(long)

20070703 1033. FKLI set up breakout levels at 1360 and 1363.5. Longs triggered, but this is a narrow range. Let's see what happens.

"There is the plain fool who does the wrong thing at all times anywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool who thinks he must trade all the time."J Livermore Manchester City FCl Crude Palm Oil



From Dragons and Bulls by Stanley Kroll
Intro and Foreword
The Importance of an Investment Strategy
5 The Art of War, by Sun Tau (circa 506 BC) and The Art of Trading Success (circa AD 1994)
That's the way you want to bet/a>
Long-term v Short term trading
Technicals v Fundamentals
Perception v Reality
Part 1: Winners and Losers
Part 2: Winners and Losers
Sun Tzu: The Art of War
Those who tell don't know, those who know don't tell
Why there is no such thing as a "bad market"
The Secret to Trading Success
The Experts, do they know better?
Risk control and money management
Good advice
The 'good bets' business by Larry Hite
Don't lose your shirt
Ed Sykota's secret trend trading system