Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Grain futures higher; soy, corn gain on South America crop delays

The marketts move and gyrate on any whiff of 'news' or 'reason', how can a trader discern the effect or impact of a news event (which may include so called fundamentals)?

http://www.forexpros.com/news/commodities-news/grain-futures-higher;-soy,-corn-gain-on-south-america-crop-delays-240112

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The spring was sprung..

Spring is coiling...

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Genting punt still on...just.

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Monday, October 29, 2012


The fund keep flowing in, going parabolic... Will be one inevitable conclusion...

“And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying and selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine – that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.”

Chapter V, Reminiscence of a Stock Operator

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Stoner goes out with a win at home GP

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/sport/motorsport/stoner-gives-island-faithful-royal-sendoff-20121028-28djs.html

Manchester City Football / Soccer Club - ESPN FC

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/team?id=382&cc=4716

Friday, October 26, 2012

"Trend-following systems either suffer from a large number of shake-outs or are slow to exit when the trend reverses; and often both. You can't have your cake and eat it"

Who are those selling Astro shares?

This is my opinion. Every major IPO, the amount allocated to retail IPO gets progressively smaller and smaller. The IPO process is distorted It should be named IPRO=Initial Public Restricted Offer.

Those that have the money are given 'preference' to subscribe for institutional offer, paying only a 15% margin to subscribe, and not the full amount. If they apply for RM1mil worth, they only need to put up 15%. In return the bank will take 2%. So in this case if allocated, the cost to these special priveledges is RM3.06 for the Astro shares. They are in for the quick buck, so when the listing comes and closes at RM3 the first day for Astro, it's every dog for themseves, see who can get out the fastest. This is the cause of the selling, brought about by the distorted IPO process.

In my honest opinion....

SPI futures...

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Public Bank

All time closing high 15.42...

"You don't make money from 'Trading' but 'Sitting'"

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Another record high 15.20...

Genting Bhd, closed above 50 ema yesterday...

Triple top?

Soybeans bottomed out?

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Never say never in the markets, lest the chickens come home to roost...
 
For too long, the uninformed gamblers in the market laugh at the aunties and uncles who invest in such shares as Public Bank as being 'boring'. Now the shoe is on the other foot. Investing is about patience and discipline, not jumping in and out of the market, worrying about crisis etc (btw the Europe is still existing) and making the broker and the exchange richer than you.

No impact of Dow fall.... relatively strong?

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

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As traders, we are often bombarded with such bullshit 'news' stories....

"Palm Oil set to surge 21% as demand returns, Sime says"

Why 21% why not 25%? 21.3% 22.2222%? This is equally as bad as so called expert forecasters such as Mistry plucking targets of 2,200 per tonne, based on predictions on inventory data.
Which is why the charts provide the objective and unbiased opinion of market direction, because we can make educated guesses on where the 'big elephants' are headed.

"In the long run fundamentals determine the price, but as Lord Keynes said, in the long run, there is one certainty, WE ARE ALL DEAD"

Where is the $? Stock market.
For te visionary who believed in the stock on fundamentals and who stuck with it, they reap the rewards... The money is in the sitting, rather than the thinking.

Monday, October 22, 2012

Astro 60 min, IPO not that successful.

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"In a bull market, the time to go long is when the bears come out to hoax the bulls..."

Public Bank, going parabolic...

5 min on downward track...

Sunday, October 21, 2012

First Malaysian ever to take pole position in a Grand Prix race, but in the race proper took second position, making history as first Malaysian to stand atop the victory podium, If good enough, victory is a matter of time for ZULFAHMI Khairuddin.


West Bromwich Albion v Manchester City live football scores | Soccer scores and live video | ESPNFC.com

http://espnfc.com/uk/en/report/345773/report.html?soccernet=true&cc=4716

Saturday, October 20, 2012

AP News : Dow down 205 as weak earnings drag market lower

http://m.apnews.mobi/ap/db_6776/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=YUpoQY6q

I guess this is what is meant by "...Bull markets die on euphoria".

Incidently today iw the anniversary of Black Monday, Oct 19, 1987 crash.

People suffer from confirmation bias, basically They only look at the data that confirms their beliefs. Hence when an 'expert' such as Dorab Mistry makes a prediction (forecast) they only thing that matters is the data confirms the trader's position.
So, human beings' fear of tail risk events are exploited by the conspiracy theorists who prey on that fear. One example is on how when the General Elections are finally called, the stock market will crash in Malaysia. This has been going on for over a year, in the meantime, we see the rally to new all time highs last week. Worst still are predictions of imposition of emergency martial law is the BN coalition loses the GE. Basically hogwash. Another example is how the traders in the futures markets on Bursamalaysia all whine about the algos disrupting their trading, and it was 'not fair'...

Friday, October 19, 2012

KLCI closes at fresh high for second day

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/10/19/business/20121019174908&sec=business


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Public Bank, at record highs...

Thursday, October 18, 2012

N225 futures, 60 min.

"I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, "Well, you know this is a bull market!" he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements – that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend." Chapter V "Reminiscence of a Stock Operatr"

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Wisdom of Jesse Livermore

http://www.zealllc.com/2003/jesse06.htm

“I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, “Well, you know this is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements – that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.”


"There is the plain fool who does the wrong thing at all times anywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool who thinks he must trade all the time."J Livermore Manchester City FCl Crude Palm Oil

fcpo.blogspot.com

THE END OF AN ERA

From Dragons and Bulls by Stanley Kroll
Intro and Foreword
The Importance of an Investment Strategy
5 The Art of War, by Sun Tau (circa 506 BC) and The Art of Trading Success (circa AD 1994)
That's the way you want to bet/a>
Long-term v Short term trading
Technicals v Fundamentals
Perception v Reality
Part 1: Winners and Losers
Part 2: Winners and Losers
Sun Tzu: The Art of War
Those who tell don't know, those who know don't tell
Why there is no such thing as a "bad market"
The Secret to Trading Success
The Experts, do they know better?
Risk control and money management
Good advice
The 'good bets' business by Larry Hite
Don't lose your shirt
Ed Sykota's secret trend trading system