Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Homosapiens, monkeys, GFC, trading...


An interesting insight into human being's biases that will usually stop aspiring individuals succeding at trading or the financial markets...

There are two evolutionary biases common to humans and monkeys, risk aversion and loss aversion. Risk aversion means that given a choice between a safe option (extra $500) and a risky option (a risky bet to risk 1000 to get another 1000) subjects tend to take the easy option. In trading then once a trade goes into profit, the tendency os to take profit quickly and not let the trade run.

The other is loss aversion, which means the subjects hate losses, because they keep thinking in relative terms, eg on where they bought a stock at, and now it has fallen and in a loss situation. They tend to take the more risky situation in the decision tree, ie average the trade down in the hope for a rebound, in order to mitigate the loss, which they hate.

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"There is the plain fool who does the wrong thing at all times anywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool who thinks he must trade all the time."J Livermore Manchester City FCl Crude Palm Oil

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From Dragons and Bulls by Stanley Kroll
Introduction and Foreword
The Importance of an Investment Strategy
5 The Art of War, by Sun Tau (circa 506 BC) and The Art of Trading Success (circa AD 1994)
That's the way you want to bet
Long-term v Short term trading
Technicals v Fundamentals
Perception v Reality
Part 1: Winners and Losers
Part 2: Winners and Losers
Sun Tzu: The Art of War
Those who tell don't know, those who know don't tell
Why there is no such thing as a "bad market"
The Secret to Trading Success
The Experts, do they know better?
Risk control and money management
Larry Hite: The Billion Dollar fund Manager
Systems Trading:Kroll's Suggested Method
Buy the Strength Sell the Weakness
Good advice
The 'good bets' business by Larry Hite
Don't lose your shirt
Ed Sykota's secret trend trading system