Saturday, October 20, 2012

People suffer from confirmation bias, basically They only look at the data that confirms their beliefs. Hence when an 'expert' such as Dorab Mistry makes a prediction (forecast) they only thing that matters is the data confirms the trader's position.
So, human beings' fear of tail risk events are exploited by the conspiracy theorists who prey on that fear. One example is on how when the General Elections are finally called, the stock market will crash in Malaysia. This has been going on for over a year, in the meantime, we see the rally to new all time highs last week. Worst still are predictions of imposition of emergency martial law is the BN coalition loses the GE. Basically hogwash. Another example is how the traders in the futures markets on Bursamalaysia all whine about the algos disrupting their trading, and it was 'not fair'...

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"There is the plain fool who does the wrong thing at all times anywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool who thinks he must trade all the time."J Livermore Manchester City FCl Crude Palm Oil

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From Dragons and Bulls by Stanley Kroll
Introduction and Foreword
The Importance of an Investment Strategy
5 The Art of War, by Sun Tau (circa 506 BC) and The Art of Trading Success (circa AD 1994)
That's the way you want to bet
Long-term v Short term trading
Technicals v Fundamentals
Perception v Reality
Part 1: Winners and Losers
Part 2: Winners and Losers
Sun Tzu: The Art of War
Those who tell don't know, those who know don't tell
Why there is no such thing as a "bad market"
The Secret to Trading Success
The Experts, do they know better?
Risk control and money management
Larry Hite: The Billion Dollar fund Manager
Systems Trading:Kroll's Suggested Method
Buy the Strength Sell the Weakness
Good advice
The 'good bets' business by Larry Hite
Don't lose your shirt
Ed Sykota's secret trend trading system