Friday, September 18, 2009

What is driving the equities bull market?



The short answer to the above question is the USD carry trade. Because of the zero or near zero interest rate stance by the Fed, the US dollar has now become the funding currency for the carry trade, where traders borrow usd and buy currencies or assets that yield higher than the cost to repay the borrowed US dollar interest rate.

If you look at the two charts (5 min) of the euro futures and emini S&P 500 futures, you see a tick for tick correlation, when the US stock market is open. In this case the USD strengtherned, so equities fall, as some carry trades are unwound.

So when will the bull market end? No one knows, but when you see the USD gaining strength, equities will fall....

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From Dragons and Bulls by Stanley Kroll
Introduction and Foreword
The Importance of an Investment Strategy
5 The Art of War, by Sun Tau (circa 506 BC) and The Art of Trading Success (circa AD 1994)
That's the way you want to bet
Long-term v Short term trading
Technicals v Fundamentals
Perception v Reality
Part 1: Winners and Losers
Part 2: Winners and Losers
Sun Tzu: The Art of War
Those who tell don't know, those who know don't tell
Why there is no such thing as a "bad market"
The Secret to Trading Success
The Experts, do they know better?
Risk control and money management
Larry Hite: The Billion Dollar fund Manager
Systems Trading:Kroll's Suggested Method
Buy the Strength Sell the Weakness
Good advice
The 'good bets' business by Larry Hite
Don't lose your shirt
Ed Sykota's secret trend trading system