Saturday, July 16, 2011

From the book "Trend Trading" Daryl Guppy

lt is almost as if we are two different people. We are Dr jekyll when we open a trade, full of hope, confident we have made the right decision, and yes, a little greedy because we know this trade is going to make us money. We even have a plan to tell us when to get out to take a small protective loss, and when to get out to capture at good, but not too greedy, profit. On paper, we are the perfect Dr Jekyll. We are responsible, respectable, calm, rational and the model of a
good trader. This is not accidental. All of us feel very much like this when we buy stock. We are backing our judgment and analysis, often with significant sums of money. We are intelligent people. We know and understand the consequences of surrendering to emotion, of ignoring losses and using the market as ll tool to gamble on hope. We are not idiots, although later we might feel this way.
So what happens when we buy the stock? V/hat does Dr Jekyll do? He turns into Mr Hyde. All our planning goes out the window as We surrender to our emotions. and this is made easier because we are not in a social situation. There is nobody to remind us we are doing anything wrong. Ignoring a stop loss is easy. Surrending to irrational fear seems a natural response. We ignore losses by refusing to look at the trading screen. When the market report segrnent is due on the evening news, we go to the toilet. We find a delightful range of avoidance activities to prevent us from catching the important details about how our stock is performing. Yet, through this self-imposed fog of avoidartoe hear the commentalor when he mentions that our share has gone We bring selective deafness to a new level not achieved since we were teenagers.


I know many traders who hold o to the losing position eg in cpo futures short, with the price 200+ points against them who just choose to get into this 'fog of avoidance'. And the amazing thing is when they get lucky and the position swings 100+ in their favour, they still ignore details, citing excuses such as "I am not able to access prices or the trading platform. But I have a trailing stop in at X price". The inevitable then then happens , prices swing up to the stop loss level. Outcome? I think they will still be 'foggy'. Human nature, it will never change...

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"There is the plain fool who does the wrong thing at all times anywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool who thinks he must trade all the time."J Livermore Manchester City FCl Crude Palm Oil

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From Dragons and Bulls by Stanley Kroll
Introduction and Foreword
The Importance of an Investment Strategy
5 The Art of War, by Sun Tau (circa 506 BC) and The Art of Trading Success (circa AD 1994)
That's the way you want to bet
Long-term v Short term trading
Technicals v Fundamentals
Perception v Reality
Part 1: Winners and Losers
Part 2: Winners and Losers
Sun Tzu: The Art of War
Those who tell don't know, those who know don't tell
Why there is no such thing as a "bad market"
The Secret to Trading Success
The Experts, do they know better?
Risk control and money management
Larry Hite: The Billion Dollar fund Manager
Systems Trading:Kroll's Suggested Method
Buy the Strength Sell the Weakness
Good advice
The 'good bets' business by Larry Hite
Don't lose your shirt
Ed Sykota's secret trend trading system