From the book "Trend Trading" Daryl Guppy
lt is almost as if we are two different people. We are Dr jekyll when we open a trade, full of hope, confident we have made the right decision, and yes, a little greedy because we know this trade is going to make us money. We even have a plan to tell us when to get out to take a small protective loss, and when to get out to capture at good, but not too greedy, profit. On paper, we are the perfect Dr Jekyll. We are responsible, respectable, calm, rational and the model of a
good trader. This is not accidental. All of us feel very much like this when we buy stock. We are backing our judgment and analysis, often with significant sums of money. We are intelligent people. We know and understand the consequences of surrendering to emotion, of ignoring losses and using the market as ll tool to gamble on hope. We are not idiots, although later we might feel this way.
So what happens when we buy the stock? V/hat does Dr Jekyll do? He turns into Mr Hyde. All our planning goes out the window as We surrender to our emotions. and this is made easier because we are not in a social situation. There is nobody to remind us we are doing anything wrong. Ignoring a stop loss is easy. Surrending to irrational fear seems a natural response. We ignore losses by refusing to look at the trading screen. When the market report segrnent is due on the evening news, we go to the toilet. We find a delightful range of avoidance activities to prevent us from catching the important details about how our stock is performing. Yet, through this self-imposed fog of avoidartoe hear the commentalor when he mentions that our share has gone We bring selective deafness to a new level not achieved since we were teenagers.
I know many traders who hold o to the losing position eg in cpo futures short, with the price 200+ points against them who just choose to get into this 'fog of avoidance'. And the amazing thing is when they get lucky and the position swings 100+ in their favour, they still ignore details, citing excuses such as "I am not able to access prices or the trading platform. But I have a trailing stop in at X price". The inevitable then then happens , prices swing up to the stop loss level. Outcome? I think they will still be 'foggy'. Human nature, it will never change...
Labels: commodities, fcpo, fkli, index futures
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