Tuesday, June 25, 2013

What makes the market move?

A trader friend sent me an email yesterday. Written by an analyst? the email text starts,
 
"The benchmark Crude Palm Oil September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed at 2439 Ringgit per metric ton, the lowest closing level for most-active futures since June 14, 0.90% lower compared to the previous trading day.

The drop in Palm prices was mainly attributed by weakening Indian currency and slowing growth in China which might curb imports by the biggest buyers of the commodity.

China Interbank lending rates had retreated amidst cash crunch as the monetary authority was said to have made funds available to lenders. Nonetheless we could expect a short-term slowdown in demand brought about by the contractionary effect of the cash crunch."
 
In reality markets move because of the flow of money, or more to the point "those who are wrong cutting loss" If you look at a daily bar or candlestick, the market trades in some sort of range, but there is only one single price that corresponding to the close price. Hence those who long above that closing price and those who short below the closing are wrong, just waiting to cut loss.
 
So when a tip, analyst writings, news flashes in front of a trader, "Stash that flash in the trash."

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"There is the plain fool who does the wrong thing at all times anywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool who thinks he must trade all the time."J Livermore Manchester City FCl Crude Palm Oil

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From Dragons and Bulls by Stanley Kroll
Introduction and Foreword
The Importance of an Investment Strategy
5 The Art of War, by Sun Tau (circa 506 BC) and The Art of Trading Success (circa AD 1994)
That's the way you want to bet
Long-term v Short term trading
Technicals v Fundamentals
Perception v Reality
Part 1: Winners and Losers
Part 2: Winners and Losers
Sun Tzu: The Art of War
Those who tell don't know, those who know don't tell
Why there is no such thing as a "bad market"
The Secret to Trading Success
The Experts, do they know better?
Risk control and money management
Larry Hite: The Billion Dollar fund Manager
Systems Trading:Kroll's Suggested Method
Buy the Strength Sell the Weakness
Good advice
The 'good bets' business by Larry Hite
Don't lose your shirt
Ed Sykota's secret trend trading system