On 9 Nov 201, at some conference of experts on Oils and Fats (or something like that) one expert painted a very bearish picture on cpo 'due to high inventory stock levels of cpo. Should be 'damn bearish' right? Well the price action since then has been on the upside.

Contrary to popular belief, fundamental news and expert opinions need to be taken with a grain of salt. These 'experts' don't know better, and one might suspect that they are really consistent, consistently wrong. They are consistently wrong due to their ludicous target prices, that entail huge risks to be taken for those trades. The result, before they make money, a swing in the market will wipe them off the position.