Wednesday, November 21, 2012

On 9 Nov 201, at some conference of experts on Oils and Fats (or something like that) one expert painted a very bearish picture on cpo 'due to high inventory stock levels of cpo. Should be 'damn bearish' right? Well the price action since then has been on the upside.

Contrary to popular belief, fundamental news and expert opinions need to be taken with a grain of salt. These 'experts' don't know better, and one might suspect that they are really consistent, consistently wrong. They are consistently wrong due to their ludicous target prices, that entail huge risks to be taken for those trades. The result, before they make money, a swing in the market will wipe them off the position.

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"There is the plain fool who does the wrong thing at all times anywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool who thinks he must trade all the time."J Livermore Manchester City FCl Crude Palm Oil

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From Dragons and Bulls by Stanley Kroll
Introduction and Foreword
The Importance of an Investment Strategy
5 The Art of War, by Sun Tau (circa 506 BC) and The Art of Trading Success (circa AD 1994)
That's the way you want to bet
Long-term v Short term trading
Technicals v Fundamentals
Perception v Reality
Part 1: Winners and Losers
Part 2: Winners and Losers
Sun Tzu: The Art of War
Those who tell don't know, those who know don't tell
Why there is no such thing as a "bad market"
The Secret to Trading Success
The Experts, do they know better?
Risk control and money management
Larry Hite: The Billion Dollar fund Manager
Systems Trading:Kroll's Suggested Method
Buy the Strength Sell the Weakness
Good advice
The 'good bets' business by Larry Hite
Don't lose your shirt
Ed Sykota's secret trend trading system