Technical Analysis
George Kleinman in the book, "The New Commodity Trading Guide" on price action & TA
Does it really work? My 30 years of trading experience says it does. Solid
technical analysis is perhaps the only tool that can give the individual trader a
decent chance against the professionals. You might not have the research
capabilities of the commercial firms, but you do have the luxury of moving
faster than the big commercial operators because your trading size will not affect
price significantly. You are not stuck trading just one market (which might not
be moving). You can relax in the comfort of your home or office and analyze
your charts.
Pure technicians believe that the most important factor in predicting the
markets is price action. They don't look at crop size, export data, trade imbal-
ances, or employment numbers. They don't care if it's raining in Brazil or if the
head of the European Central Bank just made a speech hinting at an interest rate
rise. Technicians primarily care about price action.
This is not to say that technicians don't believe fundamentals move the
markets. They concede this fact. A technician might know that soybean prices
are rising because drought is devastating the Brazilian crop, but he or she will
also tell you that price will signal when the diminished supply has finally been
rationed by diminished demand—and this could happen long before the
drought has broken
The technician believes that all the pertinent fundamental information,
perhaps hundreds of bits of data impossible for any mortal to assimilate, will be
reflected in price and price action. In essence, the price action will reflect the
consensus of the market players far better than the mainstream fundamental
information available to the public trader. With this in mind, let’s look at two
classic chart patterns that possess significant predictive qualities: the breakout
and the head and shoulders
technical analysis is perhaps the only tool that can give the individual trader a
decent chance against the professionals. You might not have the research
capabilities of the commercial firms, but you do have the luxury of moving
faster than the big commercial operators because your trading size will not affect
price significantly. You are not stuck trading just one market (which might not
be moving). You can relax in the comfort of your home or office and analyze
your charts.
Pure technicians believe that the most important factor in predicting the
markets is price action. They don't look at crop size, export data, trade imbal-
ances, or employment numbers. They don't care if it's raining in Brazil or if the
head of the European Central Bank just made a speech hinting at an interest rate
rise. Technicians primarily care about price action.
This is not to say that technicians don't believe fundamentals move the
markets. They concede this fact. A technician might know that soybean prices
are rising because drought is devastating the Brazilian crop, but he or she will
also tell you that price will signal when the diminished supply has finally been
rationed by diminished demand—and this could happen long before the
drought has broken
The technician believes that all the pertinent fundamental information,
perhaps hundreds of bits of data impossible for any mortal to assimilate, will be
reflected in price and price action. In essence, the price action will reflect the
consensus of the market players far better than the mainstream fundamental
information available to the public trader. With this in mind, let’s look at two
classic chart patterns that possess significant predictive qualities: the breakout
and the head and shoulders
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