Tuesday, January 13, 2009

There is a lot of 'talk' by experts and laymen alike on the disastrous state of the world economy in 2009, on how the stock market cannot go up, there will be a great Depression etc etc, blah blah blah. In her book "Street Smarts", market wizard Linda Bradford Rashke on page 100 we find this excerpt, which is self explanatory.... I am not saying that the doom and gloom won't happen, but just to keep an open mind on the markets and 'anything can happen' in markets.

Basically the page talks about:
1 ESPN basketball analyst Dick Vitale would make a great trader because of the words"Talk to me, baby!"

2 She goes to paint the following scenario "The markets talk to us all the time. For example, let's look at December 1994. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates, California's Orange County was teetering on the verge of bankruptcy, and Mexico was in the midst of an economic freefall after the devaluation of the peso. Any, rational investor would assume that our equity market should go down." Basically the 'bad news' is discounted. If one looks at this using the same logic the press uses crash is around the corner. Higher interest rates? Stocks go down. Municipal bonds default? Stocks go down. Mexico, the US's trading neighbor devalues its currency? Stocks go down. All three the same month? Stocks really go down!

In reality though, the market did not go down. The S&P 500 finished 15 percent higher for the month. What was the market saying? It was saying, "I don't care about higher interest rates or an economic crisis, I'm going higher!" And that is in fact what happened. Over the next 10 months, the Dow Jones appreciated over 30 percent.

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"There is the plain fool who does the wrong thing at all times anywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool who thinks he must trade all the time."J Livermore Manchester City FCl Crude Palm Oil

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From Dragons and Bulls by Stanley Kroll
Introduction and Foreword
The Importance of an Investment Strategy
5 The Art of War, by Sun Tau (circa 506 BC) and The Art of Trading Success (circa AD 1994)
That's the way you want to bet
Long-term v Short term trading
Technicals v Fundamentals
Perception v Reality
Part 1: Winners and Losers
Part 2: Winners and Losers
Sun Tzu: The Art of War
Those who tell don't know, those who know don't tell
Why there is no such thing as a "bad market"
The Secret to Trading Success
The Experts, do they know better?
Risk control and money management
Larry Hite: The Billion Dollar fund Manager
Systems Trading:Kroll's Suggested Method
Buy the Strength Sell the Weakness
Good advice
The 'good bets' business by Larry Hite
Don't lose your shirt
Ed Sykota's secret trend trading system