There is a lot of 'talk' by experts and laymen alike on the disastrous state of the world economy in 2009, on how the stock market cannot go up, there will be a great Depression etc etc, blah blah blah. In her book "Street Smarts", market wizard Linda Bradford Rashke on page 100 we find this excerpt, which is self explanatory.... I am not saying that the doom and gloom won't happen, but just to keep an open mind on the markets and 'anything can happen' in markets.
Basically the page talks about:
1 ESPN basketball analyst Dick Vitale would make a great trader because of the words"Talk to me, baby!"
2 She goes to paint the following scenario "The markets talk to us all the time. For example, let's look at December 1994. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates, California's Orange County was teetering on the verge of bankruptcy, and Mexico was in the midst of an economic freefall after the devaluation of the peso. Any, rational investor would assume that our equity market should go down." Basically the 'bad news' is discounted. If one looks at this using the same logic the press uses crash is around the corner. Higher interest rates? Stocks go down. Municipal bonds default? Stocks go down. Mexico, the US's trading neighbor devalues its currency? Stocks go down. All three the same month? Stocks really go down!
In reality though, the market did not go down. The S&P 500 finished 15 percent higher for the month. What was the market saying? It was saying, "I don't care about higher interest rates or an economic crisis, I'm going higher!" And that is in fact what happened. Over the next 10 months, the Dow Jones appreciated over 30 percent.
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home