Friday, February 09, 2007

20070209 1715 pm. "engulfing bearish" candlestick pattern could signal the start of the correction. Coming into today there were few factors that signalled the start of the possible correction:
I went out for dinner at the local teochew porridge restaurant. The lady shopowner was discussion stocks like Affin and Faber with a customer, pouring over the stock section of the newspaper.
  • Expert analysts were seeing the market as being "not overbought" when RSI is above 80, possible blow off top pattern, parabolic rise in stock prices with gapping up vertical action. They see what they 'want' to see, and fail to see the wood for the trees.
  • Absolute deadweight leading indicator stocks that never fail to move at the end of uptrends start moving up as people search for 'laggards'. Won't mention names but I think experienced professional traders know what names they are.
  • The talking buzz yesterday was that "foreigners were piling money into Malaysian stocks, with expectations of earnings growth of 20%. And not just blue chips, absolutely every damn stock." A tenet of value investing is when return on equity is enough to create positive return on capital employed, then growth is there and value is created. But when prices run up 30 to 35% so far (in some cases 100 to 200%), stocks are overvalued.
  • I called up a friend to tell them about the surge in Magnum Corp shares from 3.16 to 3.42 this morning. Said "I won't be selling until RM4..., they tell me the KLCI can surge another 300 points." When expectations become unrealistic....time to be careful.

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From Dragons and Bulls by Stanley Kroll
Introduction and Foreword
The Importance of an Investment Strategy
5 The Art of War, by Sun Tau (circa 506 BC) and The Art of Trading Success (circa AD 1994)
That's the way you want to bet
Long-term v Short term trading
Technicals v Fundamentals
Perception v Reality
Part 1: Winners and Losers
Part 2: Winners and Losers
Sun Tzu: The Art of War
Those who tell don't know, those who know don't tell
Why there is no such thing as a "bad market"
The Secret to Trading Success
The Experts, do they know better?
Risk control and money management
Larry Hite: The Billion Dollar fund Manager
Systems Trading:Kroll's Suggested Method
Buy the Strength Sell the Weakness
Good advice
The 'good bets' business by Larry Hite
Don't lose your shirt
Ed Sykota's secret trend trading system